Monday, March 25, 2024

Tangent: Come Thursday, Highly Unlikely That SBF Gets Less Than 15 Years…


As long as we are mentioning crime and punishment this morning, let's get this one out of the way: SBF isn't going to skate. Not a chance.

There is almost no chance he won’t see a sentence at least 20% longer than Elizabeth Holmes. He will learn his fate at a hearing this Thursday morning, in federal court, in Manhattan.

While I don’t think 50+ years is likely, I do think 25 is on the table.

I won’t repeat what the goofy prediction market bets at Polymarket say, but the betting is clustered between 20 and 50 years.

His complete lack of remorse — continuing to mislead — even on the stand. . . means the mere fact that there have been recoveries in bankruptcy. . . won’t count for much in reduction of sentence credits, I predict.

Onward -- still grinning.

नमस्ते

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