I suppose the wild card here is whether Bitcoin maximalists are willing to break international law, and the moral sense of the planet -- and keep the Russian oligarchs liquid, by continuing to trade with them in Bitcoin and to a lesser extent, other crypto-.
But IF the whales are willing to stand with Ukraine, this will all shape up as did the market macro moves in 2001. That is, we will see a risk off asset winter, continue.
It may take a couple of months. . . but Condor predicts. . . it is coming. The Bitcoiners / Ayn Randers... hate totalitarians (Putin) even more than they hate Democratic governments.
They will almost without exception hold the line, with the people of Ukraine. Here's the latest from Coindesk -- and a bit of it:
. . .[In 2001,] the S&P 500's post-invasion rally peaked within three months and resumed a decline related to the dot-com bust before setting new bear market lows. QCP expects risk assets to chart similar moves this time, saying the macroeconomic conditions today are similar those of 21 years ago. . . .
"The closest parallel to the present situation is the 2001 Afghan war given the similarities: 1. Markets were under pressure from the dot-com deleveraging. 2. Impending stagflation with inflation at a then decade-high level of 3.5%," QCP said. "In the Afghan war, markets saw a relief rally that lasted three months before resuming the downtrend and eventually breaking below the post-invasion lows. . . ."
We should see Riot Blockchain's year end GAAP losses tonight.
Onward, looking for better days. . . ahead. Be excellent to one another.
नमस्ते
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