[U: Pfizer Now, Too.] A "Sneak Peek" At Merck's Q2 2023 Likely Performance -- With Earnings Due On Tuesday -- Before Market Open...

Do go read this whole piece, if this strikes your interest. In the last six or so years, I've stopped putting out quarterly predictions for Merck and Pfizer, but I am toying with the idea of resuming that tradition. We shall see. [As of Monday, as an update, I've added a companion Pfizer version -- as a new post. Enjoy.]

In any event, this particular author's analysis may be slightly off, on a few lesser metrics, but in the main it reads as almost all spot-on. Again, if you are looking to trade Merck's Q2 disclosures -- be sure to read this in advance of Tuesday. Here's a bit:

. . .In oncology drugs, Keytruda sales are likely to have been driven by continued strong momentum in metastatic indications and rapid uptake across recent earlier-stage launches. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Keytruda’s sales is $5.87 billion, while our estimate is $5.69 billion. However, Keytruda’s year-over-year growth rate in the United States is expected to have moderated in the second quarter as the impact of the strong initial uptake of earlier-stage indications softened. In outside U.S. markets, while volumes are expected to have remained strong, pricing is expected to have been a headwind. . . .

With regard to the HPV vaccine, Gardasil, ex-U.S. sales are expected to have been driven by strong demand in international markets like China in the second quarter. In the United States, sales were flat in the first quarter. It remains to be seen if sales trends improved in the second quarter. Overall, though Gardasil revenue growth in 2023 is expected to be higher than 2022 levels, the rate of growth in the second quarter is expected to have been less than the first quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Gardasil is $1.99 billion.

Meanwhile, the top line is expected to have witnessed the impact of the loss of U.S. market exclusivity for drugs like Remicade, Noxafil and Zetia. Lower demand and pricing in the United States and generic competition in certain international markets may have hurt sales of the diabetes franchise (Januvia/Janumet). The drugs lost market exclusivity in China in July and the European Union in September last year. . . .

Merck did deliver an upside surprise of almost 5 per cent, at the sales line in Q1 2023. . . no reason to believe that won't appear again, this quarter. Onward -- grinning, with a creamy root beer float now. . . with a recording of last week's NY Met Opera on in the background. . . out.



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