Just A Little More Color, On One Franchise That Will Begin "The Backfilling" -- In The 2030s, As Pembrolizumab Begins To Lose Exclusivity, Then: Winrevair®

To be clear, Keytruda^® will roll on, with global revenues increasing about 20% per year. . . into the early 2030s. That's a huge competitive advantage -- lapping the field, year after year. But should unforeseen patent trouble arise (in the form of a Congressional move, to more forcefully limit patent evergreening) -- it will be products like winreviar, that keep Merck chugging along like the cash flow juggernaut it is.

It was indeed an excellent Q1 2024, and the NYSE-traded stock should reach into the $140-something range -- perhaps even before year end 2024 -- as the amped up guidance offered by Mr. Davis yesterday appears in the as actually-reported results next quarter and beyond. Here's that story, from FiercePharma, as part of its review of Rawway's first quarter 2024 "upside surprise" results:

. . .Four months into Davis’ tenure as CEO in 2021, the company acquired sotatercept in an $11.5 billion buyout of Acceleron. Data analytics group FactSet has projected sales of Winrevair to reach $3.9 billion by 2029.

“Strategic business development focused on the best external science remains an important priority,” the CEO said. . . .

When asked to estimate Winrevair’s sales this year, Davis reiterated that the company does not provide guidance for its individual products. He did declare that the launch is off to a strong start, with prescriptions increasing along with repeat prescriptions. Shipments to patients’ homes is underway. And the company is seeing excellent access with “no real limits,” Davis said, which is a good sign considering the drug was approved less than a month ago, he added.

R&D chief Dean Li, M.D., Ph.D., said that there will be continued “data flows that will continue to inform and strengthen,” Winrevair’s profile. The company also is working on an auto-injector that should improve uptake for the drug, which is currently provided in a vial.

“We believe that the vast majority with time will use it as self-administration,” Li said. “This is a patient population that’s quite used to doing injections. . . .”

I continue to believe that $250,000 a year -- even though it is a life saver. . . is overpriced, for most US retail patients -- as that means Merck makes back all $11 billion it paid for the whole company, in about five years.

The drug will remain on patent for over 20 years. The Condor's view is that moves like that, indeed, are likely going to lead to more Congressional action to restrict US-drug pricing -- or incentivize the company to more sharply increase EU and/or Canadian and Japanese prices -- to allow the US prices to come down. . . between now and 2028, on all life-saving pharmaceuticals, generally.

[We've already seen one version of this (as we mentioned last week), with Merck allocating more supply of Gardasil to EU and Japan and UK -- while shorting its contractual commits -- to WHO/GAVI/UNICEF -- for very low priced African deliveries, in this supply constrained year.]

नमस्ते

Merck Posts Very Strong Q1 2024 Results -- And Expects Even Better -- In The Back Half Of 2024...

The pembrolizumab franchise is clocking ever-increasing sales. . . and is as we've said, now the world's highest selling single therapeutic agent. That will continue past 2030 -- as I've long explained, despite less rosy guesses from Wall Street, about earlier patent expiries. It is always possible that a better agent for oncology comes along. . . but other than that (which no one might foresee at this point), the runway is clear.

So Merck is back over $130 a share -- and probably is looking at a 12 month fair value closer to $140, once Winrevair sales really start accelerating. Here's the Reuters analysis:

. . .[T]he company is making good progress on improving access to Winrevair, with several insurers and other payers already establishing coverage for it.

"Overall, we see today's results as consistent with the recent solid trends seen from Merck's business," J.P.Morgan analyst Chris Schott said.

The primary focus for Merck is Winrevair, Schott said, adding that he expects rapid uptake of the novel PAH drug, from the second half of the year. . . .

New Jersey-based Merck said it expected annual earnings between $8.53 and $8.65 per share, up from its previous forecast of $8.44 to $8.59. Analysts had expected earnings of $8.56 per share. The company's new forecast includes a $0.26 per share charge for its $680-million acquisition of cancer drug developer Harpoon Therapeutics, which closed in the first quarter of 2024, Merck said. The drugmaker forecast 2024 sales between $63.1 billion and $64.3 billion, up from its previous forecast of $62.7 billion to $64.2 billion. Analysts had expected sales of $63.83 billion. . . .

Now you know -- onward, grinning into the sunshine, here.

नमस्ते

[Plus Video!] Courtesy Our Commenter, A Look At A Miles-Wide Obsidian / Gem-Like "Volcanic Lake" On Tempestuous Moon Io, Around Jupiter.

It would be quite a sight to see -- a nearly mirror-like obsidian / "volcanic glass" surface, about 127 miles long, with a great white peak in the center. . . reflecting the vast face of Lord Jupiter, from time to time -- highlighted, in the dim sunlight on that violent world.

Io is a very active little moon, regularly squeezed and tugged out of round by Jupiter's crushing gravitational / tidal forces, and bombarded by Jupiter's vast magnetic storms / radiation, on the regular. This makes Io. . . an active volcano-rich world -- and a nearly-smooth orb, as it is regularly being resurfaced by lava flows that cool, and then reheat -- and erupt. What a vision to see -- and the graceful Juno craft, via its biggest camera. . . just recently had a front row seat -- and saw it all,beaming the raw data back to us here, on our little blue marble.

Here's the latest, per CNN's science desk:

. . .Close flybys of Io, one of Jupiter’s moons and the most volcanically active world in our solar system, have revealed a lava lake and a towering feature called “Steeple Mountain” on the moon’s alien surface.

NASA’s Juno spacecraft, which first arrived to study Jupiter and its moons in 2016, flew within roughly 930 miles (1,500 kilometers) of the lava world’s surface in December and February to capture the first detailed images of Io’s northern latitudes.

It has been more than 20 years since a mission flew so closely by Io, and the spacecraft’s camera, called JunoCam, captured high-resolution images that showcased active volcanic plumes, mountain peaks and a glass-smooth lake of cooled lava. . . .

Do click below -- for an amazingly artistic interp, of the Juno-Cam data:



नमस्ते

Since Lynparza® Is In The News, Today... We Will Rerun Ours, From 2018, On The Whole Long History Here -- Involving Merck/S-P...

FiercePharma has a story on Lynparza out this morning. It is overall immaterial to Merck, as the changing landscape described there. . . doesn't much move the needle as to Merck everall revenue before 2028 -- but it offers a chance to remind, about the longish, and tangled, various corporate histories, here. So. . . see below:

[Original dateline -- 12.03.2018:] If you were smart enough to buy in to Tesaro's Citi Morgan Stanley-managed IPO six years ago -- at $13.50/share (or even in the after-market at around $15), and hold -- today, you are pretty happy. . . as GSK is buying your holdings for $75/share -- all cash. That's a more than five-fold return, in under six years. Sweet.

Since Tesaro in-licensed several of the legacy Merck (and in the case of rolapitant, at least, legacy Schering-Plough) oncology related cast-offs, after the bust-up of Schering-Plough. . . in truth, we have watched this company's progress since at least March of 2010, on and off.

[Interestingly, and ironically (since Merck once owned it -- via S-P), the rolapitant program came to be a commercial competitor of Merck's Emend^®, as a nausea treatment in chemo.] In any event, today we learn that, as part of Glaxo's retooling (shedding consumer health assets; fully redeploying into / entering oncology). . . Tesaro will become. . . GSK. And the nutritional beverages will be off-loaded. Here's a bit, from one of the many morning stories on it all:

. . . .GlaxoSmithKline is acquiring oncology firm Tesaro in a deal worth $5.1 billion just hours after announcing the sale of its health drinks business in India to Unilever for some $3.7 billion. . . .

“The proposed transaction significantly strengthens GSK’s pharmaceutical business, accelerating the build of GSK’s pipeline and commercial capability in oncology,” GSK said in a statement announcing the Tesaro deal early Monday. . . . It’s all cash with GSK paying $75 a share. . . .

It is said that dull people make their fortunes. . . in real estate (cough -- Trump!), while the sharp make theirs in the stock market. . . and the geniuses? Well. They make theirs trading life science companies, in that stock market. Heh. I honestly don't know anyone who said that, but it sounds good, today. Really stable. . . geniuses -- smile.

नमस्ते

It Seems CEO Devin Nunes... Made A Material, Objectively-Verifiable As FALSE Pair Of Statements, In Today's SEC Form 8-K Filing, For "Truth Social". IRONIC.

Look -- I don't care that much, because any human with a working forebrain will no longer want to own this pig of a stock -- symbol "DJT". But Mr. Nunes, as its '34 Act CEO, has some. . . duties, imposed by decades of SEC case law. One is not to lie, knowingly, about any material matter, related to the stock, in the public square.

And a second is to correct a material misstatement, once made, again knowingly -- by the CEO.

I've seen numerous data-bases, and MSM published reports that put the retail shareholder base at under 50,000 people. The RECORD holders number around. . . 500. And he claims no larger "Wall Street" institution holds the DJT stock, as a long position (I am pretty sure that much is true).

So, when he claimed on air yesterday, and repeated it -- in an SEC filed Form 8-K (Material Developments) today... that he has "millions" -- or even "hundreds of thousands" of retail shareholders. . . he was lying, and he knew it.

Please let the SEC enforcement lawyers take a look at this 8-K.

This is willful -- and material -- misstatement, of fact -- not a projection, not "forward looking information". It is a material factual claim. . . one that is. . . clearly false. [Of course, if the DJT transfer agent, or the renamed "EFHutton" brokerage firm in Georgia (or other similar, and reputable representative of the company) will sign and notarize an affidavit that there are "retail holders" into the millions, under just five or ten or fifty record holder names. . . I will gladly print him a complete apology.]

Onward -- but this is. . . just so. . . on brand!

Me? I'd expect the SEC to ask after this -- messrs. DJT, "Truth" and Nunes, in due course. . . .

नमस्ते

A Very Cogent NYT Opinion -- By Jamelle Bouie -- On The UAW Win In Tennessee, And Its Deeply Resonant Civil Rights... Echoes.

In the NYT, Jamelle Bouie offers a very poignant perspective, on why the sitting GOP governors (thus far, failing) attempts at fear mongering -- about union rights. . . ring a decidedly-discordant and ugly bell. . . to the Jim Crow South. . . just dressed up, in some latter-day morning coats.

Do go read it all -- he is clearly right: this past week was / is concrete evidence of MAGA / GOP party wags cum governors. . . largely seeking the "good ol' days", in Dixie (which never were such, for any non-whyte, non-landed gentry, non-male. . . classes):

. . .The mere potential for union success was so threatening that the day before the vote began, several of the Southern Republican governors announced their opposition to the U.A.W. campaign. “We the governors of Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas are highly concerned about the unionization campaign driven by misinformation and scare tactics that the U.A.W. has brought into our states,” their joint statement reads. “As governors, we have a responsibility to our constituents to speak up when we see special interests looking to come into our state and threaten our jobs and the values we live by.”

It is no shock to see conservative Republicans opposing organized labor. But it is difficult to observe this particular struggle, taking place as it is in the South, without being reminded of the region’s entrenched hostility to unions — or any other institution or effort that might weaken the political and economic dominance of capital over the whole of Southern society. . . .

“In all social systems there must be a class to do the menial duties, to perform the drudgery of life,” Senator James Henry Hammond of South Carolina declared in an 1858 speech. “It constitutes the very mudsill of society and of political government, and you might as well attempt to build a house in the air, as to build either the one or the other, except on this mudsill.”

A decade later and the slave system was dead, crushed underfoot by the armies of emancipation. The landowning Southern elites had lost their greatest asset — a seemingly inexhaustible supply of free labor. They would never regain it, but they would fight as hard as they could to approximate it. . . .

Neither the vote in Chattanooga nor the coming vote of auto workers at the Mercedes-Benz factory near Tuscaloosa, Ala., will be dispositive for the ultimate success of the U.A.W. campaign in the South. Win or lose, this will be a long march for organized labor.

But like a gardener taking stock of her plot for the season ahead, we will have to be patient. Victory might bring the chance to refresh the soil in preparation for a new kind of New South. . . .

We will, of course, cover the upcoming Mercedes-Benz election, as well. Do breath easy, as we have our weather- eye keenly fixed on the horizon, here. And we see. . . change. . . is coming. Onward.

नमस्ते

Canadian Approval For Certain Gastric Cancers, For Merck's Keytruda®: Good News

Again, not likely material to overall Merck financials, by itself -- but it continues the good news, out of Rahway.

Based on favorable results from KEYNOTE-859, the maker of pembrolizumab announced that it has cleared Health Canada for certain gastric cancers -- a high burden disease worldwide:

. . .First approved in Canada in 2015, Keytruda holds indications across various disease areas including advanced renal cell carcinoma, bladder cancer, and non-small cell lung carcinoma, among others.

Merck Canada Oncology Business Unit executive director and vice-president André Galarneau said: “We are proud of the recent expansion of Keytruda’s indications in gastric cancers, which often go undetected until an advanced stage, at which point patients face a poor prognosis.

“This milestone underscores our commitment to helping improve the lives of patients by offering treatment options that can lead to better health outcomes. . . .”

Now you know -- be excellent to one another. . . on a beautiful Spring morning here!

नमस्ते

Tangent: Bitcoin Mining Transaction Fees -- Which Spiked Momentarily -- Are Now BELOW The Pre-Halvening Levels... Hilarious -- Market Discipline.

The largely silly claim -- last week -- in crypto-booster papers, was that the debut of Runes, inscribed onto the blocks of mined Bitcoin would drive a vast increase in fees paid to miners. And true enough, the actual 480,000 block miner was paid about $2.6 million, in fees overall -- but that was for the novelty of writing things onto that "Halvening" block.

Almost immediately, fees began falling over the weekend. They are now at under a third of where they were, at peak and slightly below the pre-halvening Levels.

In sum, the $80 or so per block in fees will never cover the fact that miners now face about four times more "squeezing" via the doubling in needed added capital for faster and more rigs, to the fact that the mining results in only half as many coins, as a reward, per block solved.

There is almost no chance Riot will be profitable -- unless Bitcoin stays above about $160,000 for a full year, now.

Fairly valued, this is a sub-$3 stock, though it is trading near $10 this morning.

Onward -- into the Spring sunshine of Earth Day 2024! Be excellent to one another!

नमस्ते

Tomorrow, It Will Have Been 54 Loops Around The Sun, Since The Very First "Earth Day"...

So on the eve of it, we will now re-run the one we posted -- at a half century on.

. . .It has been [a half century] since that first Earth Day in New York City -- and Philly, New Orleans. . . and Boulder. It certainly doesn't seem a half-century ago -- but it now is.

To be sure, the work attached to the movement has never been more vital -- more urgent. We all share this fragile orb — and we are all responsible for how we pass it on, to our children, and theirs. So join with the kiddos. . . here:

. . . .Earth Day was a unified response to an environment in crisis — oil spills, smog, rivers so polluted they literally caught fire.

On April 22, 1970, 20 million Americans — 10% of the U.S. population at the time — took to the streets, college campuses and hundreds of cities to protest environmental ignorance and demand a new way forward for our planet.

The first Earth Day is credited with launching the modern environmental movement, and is now recognized as the planet’s largest civic event. . . .

Now you know. Do something, even from home -- to move the agenda forward, in your sphere of influence. Please. It will help our fragile, beautiful blue sphere, immeasurably.



नमस्ते

And... What Texas Gets Wrong -- About Two Supremes' Cases, Decided This Past Week...

Last week, the Supremes decided two cases. . . in wildly different circumstances (veterans' benefits, for example) that have literally nothing to do with Texas's open violation of the federal immigration schemes (of a half-century's standing, now).

But that "super genius" Ken Paxton (MAGA TX AG) told the Fifth Circuit on Thursday, that these two cases mean. . . Texas should win in the SB-4 / Razor Wire Barrier cases.

That's. . . simply. . . unhinged.

So the ACLU (for the asylees' groups in Texas) said so, thus -- just last night:

. . .Neither of Texas’s supplemental authorities help its case. DeVillier v. Texas declined to decide whether a person may sue under the Takings Clause because it found Texas law provided a cause of action. The decision has no bearing here. DeVillier involved a claim for “just compensation.” 2024 WL 1624576, at *2. The Court explained that such a “damages” remedy “is legal, not equitable,” and so prior Takings Clause cases permitting “equitable claims” for “injunctions” were inapposite. Id. at *3. Here, plaintiffs seek only equitable relief. That makes all the difference. Crown Castle Fiber, L.L.C. v. City of Pasadena, 76 F.4th 425, 434 (5th Cir. 2023) (“But Crown Castle is not asking for damages here. The company seeks declaratory and injunctive relief, bringing the suit in equity.”).

In Labrador v. Poe, the Supreme Court issued a partial stay of an injunction against an Idaho law. There is no opinion for the Court, only a summary order. See 2024 WL 1625724, at *12 (Kavanaugh, J., concurring). And the Justices’ separate opinions have little relevance here. Poe involved a statewide injunction based on harm to two individual children. Id. at *2 (Gorsuch, J., concurring). The crux of the dispute was whether the need to protect those individuals’ anonymity warranted statewide relief. See id. at *13 (Jackson, J., dissenting) (explaining this “fact-specific reason” for affording statewide relief); id. at *4 n.2 (Gorsuch, J., concurring) (suggesting the district court should have considered “the adequacy of less intrusive” relief to address anonymity concerns). Here, unlike in Poe, the United States is a plaintiff harmed by every application of S.B. 4.

And, even apart from that, Texas (suggesting the district court should have considered “the adequacy of less intrusive” relief to address anonymity concerns). Here, unlike in Poe, the United States is a plaintiff harmed by every application of S.B. 4. And, even apart from that, Texas has never even tried to explain how something less than a statewide injunction would provide complete relief for the Las Americas plaintiffs -- two organizations and a municipality harmed by the systemic application of S.B. 4....

In any case, Texas waived any argument on appeal for plaintiff-specific relief by failing to brief it. See Lozovyy v. Kurtz, 813 F.3d 576, 580 n.2 (5th Cir. 2015) (“because this argument was not raised in Lozovyy’s initial brief, it is waived”). . . .

For the record, here is the feds' version of the same argument. It is every bit as persuasive, and makes much the same point: AG Paxton. . . cannot read, for comprehension. [Where did AG Paxton get his law degree? DeVry? DAMNATION.]

Actually, it was Virginia -- but that fine University should rescind his degree, on these papers alone.

Out.

नमस्ते

The Case On The Preposterous "Arrest On Sight" SB-4 Law In Texas... Will Be Mothballed, At Trial Court Level, Until Fifth Cir. (And Supremes) Rule...

Just a smallish matter, since one or more of the upper courts will almost certainly agree (as they did in 2013, as to Arizona's version) that Texas SB-4 is an unconstitutional attempt by Texas to usurp federal "field preempted" law.

In any event, the Texas law remains enjoined, nationwide during the appeals. So, it matters little. Here's that smallish note, in an overnight filing in West Texas:

. . .Currently, the grant of a preliminary injunction by this Court has been appealed, with proceedings currently ongoing in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit. ECF No. 49. The Fifth Circuit’s (and, possibly, the Supreme Court’s) review of the preliminary injunction order is likely to substantially affect subsequent proceedings in this litigation. Accordingly, staying all proceedings in these consolidated cases in this Court will conserve the parties’ and the Court’s resources. . . .

Now you know -- onward, grinning, still -- about the UAW win.

नमस्ते

UPDATE: The UAW Will Bargain For The ~4,300 Workers, At The Tenn. Volkswagen USA Plant -- In Chattanooga!

The Detroit Free Press has called it -- VW lost the vote in Chattanooga.

Yep. VW is unionized, in Tennessee. This is. . . exceedingly good news. And an "idea, whose time has come. . . ." AGAIN.

The lesson? Multinational companies may only treat workers as disposable for so long. Then, the tide changes. It has changed tonight, in America -- not just for this year, and this plant -- but for workers, everywhere, and perhaps for decades yet to come. From NPR, then -- a bit, from earlier tonight:

. . .Some 4,300 hourly workers were eligible to vote this week. The union needs a simple majority of votes cast to win the election. Just about 20 minutes into the counting, the UAW had received 73% of the first 1,000 votes. . . .

All eyes are on the vote, especially because previous attempts by the UAW to unionize the same Chattanooga plant in 2014 and 2019 ended in defeat. Similar efforts at several other auto manufacturing plants in the South have also failed over the years. . . .

[And from the Detroit Free Press:] “By having Ford, GM and Stellantis, after the ratification of the new contracts, immediately go to their stockholders and say, ‘It’s no big deal, we can still be very profitable,’ meant Chattanooga workers didn’t have to listen to the Republican governors who said that a union will shut them down," Wheaton said. "Ford, GM and Stellantis showed that (a rich contract) does not dramatically damage their bottom line and they can still afford to give stock buybacks, give their CEOs big pay checks, and now the workers can afford to buy groceries. . . .”

Onward, grinning ear to ear. Be excellent to one another!



नमस्ते

A Guess At Q1 2024 Earnings, For Merck -- Next Week: Should Be Strong...

This event next week. . . is unlikely to make a big wave in Merck's NYSE stock price, because the dynamics of pembrolizumab's ever rising revenue penetration are pretty well understood, on Wall Street. So -- in the main, the open variables reside in the op. expense / M&A / cap ex. lines (all controllable by the executive team, quarter to quarter). And even as to those smaller ones that are not, Merck's executives have spent about 75 years fine-tuning quarter to quarter levers, to pull should a wrinkle arise.

So, again -- next Thursday morning is barely likely to be news, at all. And you may bet it will not be a train-wreck (though THAT would be. . . news).

Here's at least one analyst's view -- and I'd expect Rahway to meet, and perhaps slightly exceed. . . these figures:

. . .Merck & Co., Inc. will announce its Q1 2024 earnings next Thursday, April 25. Analysts' consensus opinion is that earnings per share will be about $1.99 on a normalized basis, or $1.87 on a GAAP basis, on revenues of ~$15.2 billion. . . .

Big pharma is generally regarded as a strong sector for investment, with most companies driving wide profit margins -- my calculated average net profit margin of the world's 15 biggest pharma companies is 19% -- paying handsome dividends -- my calculated average dividend yield is ~3.1% -- and delivering solid, S&P-beating share price / trading returns. . . .

Onward -- to a wonderful Spring weekend! Be excellent to one another. . . .

नमस्ते

A Slow Motion... Heart-Break? Seems Likely -- Courtesy Of Our Keen Anon. Commenter! Of Pluto And The Surprising Findings From Nine Years Ago...

I'll have more later, but I wanted to get this one right out (in case union labor law isn't doing it for you, this noon-time!).

There's a very elegant, graceful explanation for how Pluto came to show a vast heart shape -- on its lower surface (as imaged in New Horizon's flyby of 2015). Get this:

. . .Now, researchers believe they've uncovered the origin of this cosmic Valentine. The heart, they report today (April 15) in the journal Nature Astronomy, was formed in a slow-motion, glancing collision with an icy rock wider than [Tennessee] is long.

The researchers determined this scenario by using computer models to simulate the impacts on Pluto's surface and the resulting formations. Pluto's heart, scientifically known as Tombaugh Regio, gets its light coloration from nitrogen ice. Impacts between icy bodies in the far reaches of the solar system aren't like those closer to the sun, said study co-author Erik Asphaug, a professor at the University of Arizona's Lunar and Planetary Laboratory. . . .

Led by Martin Jutzi, a senior researcher at the University of Bern in Switzerland, the team used a simulation method called smoothed particle hydrodynamics to test various angles of collision and sizes of impactors to learn which dynamics would lead to the formation of Sputnik Planitia, the western portion of Pluto's heart. This roughly 800-square-mile (2,000 square kilometers) region sits about 2.5 miles (4 km) lower than its surroundings. . . .

The icy rock that hit Pluto was probably around 454 miles (730 km) in diameter, the study authors said. Because of Pluto's icy core, the impact did not melt and liquefy portions of the planet as might happen in an impact in warmer climes, allowing the impacting body to sink into the planet's core.

Instead, the impactor likely flattened on Pluto's surface. Even now, it may sit just under the smooth nitrogen ice that covers Sputnik Planitia. . . .

We covered it, back then -- mostly whimsically -- but now we know the planetary science origins of such a strikingly beautiful feature: A long-lived, subtle heart-ache -- from a slow motion collision that long ago went. . . awry. Poetic, indeed.

नमस्ते

Labor Matters, On A Friday: Not Since The Late-1940s, Has A Union Won Any Industrial Plant Election, South Of The Mason-Dixon Line...

But it is very likely to happen tonight, around 11 pm EDT -- in Chattanooga, Tennessee. . . the United Auto Workers will have voted to unionize the VW America plant there.

Since we have been following the resurgence of workers' rights -- and the new teeth accorded to NLRB decisions, for about five years here -- largely at Amazon, but also at Starbucks and a few other shops. . . I thought it important to point to the larger narrative: for over three decades, larger employers have been increasingly unfair to their blue collar workforces. With almost no push back, in evidence.

Well. . . that time has now likely ended. The UAW may not be perfect, but it is certain that something was needed -- to counter the highly unequal bargaining power, and bully-tactics, of the German carmaker, in the Volunteer State. Auto-makers (including Tesla, obviously) should take heed: the time of Draconian "workshop rules" is (once again) coming to an end. Here's the latest, from Reuters:

. . .The United Auto Workers is counting on scoring a seismic victory at Volkswagen's Tennessee plant as unionization votes are tallied on Friday - one that opens up the anti-union U.S. South to organized labor.

A win would make the Chattanooga factory the first auto plant in the South to unionize via election since the 1940s and the first foreign-owned auto plant in the South to do so.

[The UAW is presently attempting] to unionize plants owned by more than a dozen automakers across the U.S., including Tesla. . . .

Federal officials from the National Labor Relations Board on Friday evening will start the counting of ballots after three days of voting ends, with results expected around 11 p.m. Eastern Time (0300 GMT).

"Everybody else is watching," said Isaac Meadows, a worker at the VW plant, who said he voted in support of the union. "This is going to change the labor landscape across the country. . . ."

And real wage levels -- ones upon which a normal American family might actually afford health care, and a modest home. . . shall return, in the process. Or so I am hoping. Onward, into the sunshine!

नमस्ते

A Denoument, Of Sorts -- On Martin Shkreli's Lifetime Ban From Pharma...

Over the course of the evening, there were some small developments, last night -- in the old Martin Shkreli lifetime civil antitrust banning matter.

Martin has "retained" new counsel, apparently for the last ditch appeal of the FTC pharma industry banning decree. That new counsel has asked for a month's continuance -- to prepare a petition for cert. (and familiarize himself with the underlying issues).

You'll recall that I earlier said the "shot-clock" would otherwise run out, on Monday -- if he didn't get a reprieve. So the Supremes will (by rule) allow Martin until May 22, 2024, now -- to make a case that this is all so exceptional (or represents a deep conflict between various federal courts' holdings)... that the highest court should hear his plea.

My prediction? He will be bounced, within 20 elapsed days of his filing.

There is simply no novel, or weighty issue here to resolve.

And the fact that his new counsel is a solo guy with a P.O. Box only, and a *.GWU.edu email address suggests this is a "bro bono"(!) cert. attempt, or one on a contingent fee -- at least.

We shall see. [Maybe I should mention that this new guy also filed an amicus brief in the Second Cir. in Martin's failed appeal -- where his 501(c) amicus-client mostly promotes latter day Kevin Sorbo movies, on would be hard right X-tian themes.]

The point being. . . this is truly a "moon shot" type filing. It will come up short, Condor confidently predicts.

Onward, smiling.

नमस्ते

Getting Vaccines -- On A "Millions Of Doses Scale", Into Vials, Flawlessly... Is A Daunting Engineering Challenge: Gardasil® Manufacturing Contract Delays, For Gavi '24

After running into Gardasil^® supply shortfalls in both 2018 and 2019, Merck made a large capital expense / expansion downstroke in its rural Elkton, Virginia facilities -- to double manufacturing capacity. [We covered that, here, in real time.]

But now Merck may be (in part) a victim of its own marketing successes, in Europe, and the US and Japan -- as even its overall expanded capacity -- between Durham, West Point and Elkton is being sorely tested. More doses are being sold than expected, in high margin geographies.

And so, this morning, we read in the NYT that Rahway will be about 1.2 million doses short, on its 2024 delivery contract with the global non-profit alliance that immunizes young African girls against HPV, which after infection and remaining dormant for years in the human body, may -- later in life -- manifest itself as several forms of cancers.

So the jabs are critical -- and approved for all girls at the age of 12. Being even a year late in getting it (if a girl is sexually active), may mean that we've missed the window. Once you've contracted the HPV virus, obviously, the vaccine is of no real use. So here's to hoping Merck is able to resolve the "manual inspections" snag, and rapidly so. [The company doesn't make any real profit on the Gavi contract -- but makes very high profits on EU, UK and US dosings of the Gardasil vaccine.]

Here's the bit from the NYT:

. . .Nearly 1.5 million teenage girls in some of the world’s poorest countries will miss the chance to be protected from cervical cancer because the drugmaker Merck has said it will not be able to deliver millions of promised doses of the HPV vaccine this year.

Merck has notified Gavi, the international organization that helps low- and middle-income countries deliver lifesaving immunizations, and UNICEF, which procures the vaccines, that it will deliver only 18.8 million of the 29.6 million doses it was contracted to deliver in 2024, Gavi said. . . .

Patrick Ryan, a spokesman for Merck, said the company “experienced a manufacturing disruption” that required it to hold and reinspect many doses by hand. He declined to give further details about the cause of the delay. . . .

Perhaps some of the "high margin" inventory in Europe might be temporarily diverted to the African continent, until the glitch is straightened out? Perhaps -- as I suspect Merck has enough on hand to cover its higher profit geographical contract commitments. But I'm just a natural-born cynic, in that way. Onward -- sorta' gray morning here.

नमस्ते

Because Tom Koestler Had Some "History" -- As Chief Science Officer -- At Legacy Schering-Plough (We Covered Here Over 12 Years Ago) -- More Later Breaking Trivia Appears.

No Surprise. USDC Judge Cote Has Properly Ruled Against Akkadian. And In Favor Of Thomas Koestler's Partial Payout, From Receiver, Now (On Former Martin Shkreli Shares).

So, he is finally getting some of his money back -- part of about $6 million Shkreli has owed him, under various arbitrations and federal judgments, since about 2014. It's a little shy of a sixth of what he's owed -- but it is. . . something.

The Akkadian boys. . . are dumped on their collective ears.

More in a minute -- but the opinion ("denied -- the escrow agent's work... is over"), and orders, were just published in Manhattan's federal courthouse, this noontime:

. . .IT IS ORDERED, that the Receiver's application is granted as follows: 1. The Receiver is authorized to distribute the Sale Proceeds as follows:

a. payment of Court approved legal fees through January 31, 2024 from the Receiver's lead counsel Halperin Battaglia Benzija, LLP in the amount of $109,344.22; b. payment of Court approved legal fees to date from the Receiver's tax counsel Richards, Layton & Finger, PA in the amount of $1,972.00;

c. payment of Court approved legal fees to date from the Receiver's Swiss counsel Baker McKenzie Switzerland AG in the amount of $59,328.24;

d. payment of the Receiver's "necessary expenses for the work" performed in connection with the receivership in the amount of $6,970.22;

e. payment to the Judgment [sic -- should be "Creditor"] Debtor [Thomas Koestler] in the amount of $724,885.32; and

f. a commission of five percent (5%) of the $950,000.00 amount he will disburse in accordance with this Order and the Receivership Order [ECF Doc. No. 120 at Paragraph 6], in the amount of $47,500.00.

2. The Receiver is authorized to retain $50,000.00 of the Sale Proceeds and the $50,000.00 received from the Brafman Firm, for a total of $100,000.00, to cover potential future receivership expenses.

3. The Receiver, in both his official and personal capacities, along with his employees, agents, attorneys, or other parties authorized to act on his behalf, shall have no liability whatsoever to Akkadian Stock Partners SA, as well as its members, officers, partners, shareholders, parents, subsidiaries, affiliates, employees, agents, attorney, administrators, successors or assigns, in each case solely in such capacities, regarding any claims, damages, actions, suits, causes of action, rights, liens, demands, obligations and/or liabilities of any kind or nature, in law or equity, known or unknown or hereinafter becoming known, liquidate or unliquidated, contingent or fixed, direct of indirect, arising from the sale of the Phoenixus Shares, the SPA, and the distribution of the Sale Proceeds.

(Signed by Judge Denise L. Cote on 4/17/2024). . . .

Just as we long said. [In fact, the opinion recites almost verbatim what we said the reasoning would turn out to be.]

So Akkadian may appeal -- but it will lose.

And the PDF of the as published USDC opinion makes clear that the electronic text only version order (at sub-e. above), is a typo -- the money goes to Thomas Koestler (from the law firm fiduciary account of the Receiver, Mr. Abbott -- to him) -- not ever back to Martin Shkreli. This is short of $1 million, and Koestler still holds a judgment for nearly six times that.

Hilarious!

Onward.

नमस्ते

Power Alley Trivia On Wednesday: An Auto-Generated Story -- About Merck "Insiders" Selling Stock... Is Devoid Of Any Rational Analysis.

From time to time, I run across "stories" -- likely generated by automated bots, or AI, if one prefers that turn of phrase. As I've previously said, the silliest version of these is likely the class that adds up SEC Form 4s totals for over a year, and declares that "insider executives" have lost confidence in the subject company. Poppycock.

In most cases, the seller(s) turn out to be using shares to pay for their exercise of options, or to pay taxes (i.e., to acquire even MORE shares in Merck -- increase their investment holdings -- not reduce them). Geez.

These auto-bots purport to offer "analysis" of financially important trends. But in truth, they usually get it exactly. . . backwards. As here. The "story" simply obscures a. . . non-event, over the past year out of Rahway.

Here is the specific nonsense, of the morning -- for the sake of a complete record, solely:

. . .Insiders sold Merck shares recently, but they didn't buy any. Despite some insider buying, the longer term picture doesn't make us feel much more positive. While insiders do own a lot of shares in the company (which is good), our analysis of their transactions doesn't make us feel confident about the company. In addition to knowing about insider transactions going on, it's beneficial to identify the risks facing Merck. . . .

They "didn't buy any, on the NYSE" is true, insofar as it goes. But it ignores that these "insiders" EARN shares, in restricted grants, and in options, vesting over time -- from the company Treasury, directly -- in return for their service to the company. In sum, day by day, their NET investment in the company's fortunes, and future. . . increases.

Now you know. Onward.

नमस्ते

I Couldn't Make This Up, If I Tried: Update -- Riot's Jason Les Made "Tim Cook-esque" Money In 2023 -- To Burn Tons Of Cash Flow, And Lose $50 Million...

Last week, I mentioned that Merck's Rob Davis made a little over $20 million last year -- joining the top tier of multinational life-science / pharma CEOs -- in the take-home pay stratosphere. There is a fair argument that most of the CEOs at right are worth what they are paid -- I may not agree with it, precisely -- but I understand the argument.

And there is a fair argument that Apple's Tim Cook is worth the lil' over $50 million he made for 2023. His company generates about $110 billion in free cash flow every year, is wildly profitable, sells the best tech on the planet -- and sports a trillion dollar market cap.

Overnight, tiny Riot Platforms -- a money burning Bitcoin miner in dusty West Texas -- finally disclosed its CEO's all in 2023 pay (see table, far lower right, on page 60 of the just filed SEC proxy). CEO Jason Les makes just a lil' less than... Tim Cook?! And his board thought it "right" to pay him more than DOUBLE what the wildly profitable and much more complex businesses, with global regulatory footprints pay their literally life-saving CEOs?

I am sorry. There is simply no rational argument to support that. The shareholders of Riot ought to vote "no" -- in their "say on pay" this proxy season. It is in the mail, now from Castle Rock, Colorado. Or it will be soon.

And do keep an eye on Riot's NASDAQ-traded stock, which was over $25 late last year. . . at $7 something today, and likely $4 something after this weekend's "Halvening". How does such a five year con job. . . persist?!

As just one point of comparison, Caitlin Clark -- perhaps the best overall women's college player in a decade (and the best shooter ever seen, in the college ranks). . . is set to make only about $72,000 a year as a WNBA rookie, in salary (she will make more, in endorsements, though) -- while Victor Wembanyama, the men's no. one pick last year in the NBA draft will make $12 million this year (and $55 million over four years -- still below Jason Les's ~$72 million in the last four years).

Whoa -- onward, grinning just the same.

नमस्ते