Tuesday, June 6, 2017

One New Ebola Case In Bas-Uele Province, DRC -- Restarts The 21 Day Countdown Clock, To "All Clear"

It is ever thus, with viral epidemic outbreaks -- two steps forward, one back.

As of last weekend, the Congo countdown had reached one day, until all follow-up monitoring cases (some 72 people) who were contacts of contacts were to be "all-clear".

On Monday, that changed when one of the prior suspected cases was confirmed as ebola. That patient's ring -- of 15 contacts -- now await a 21 day "all clear" finding -- which should come right before the fourth of July weekend, here. Importantly, statistical modeling now puts the chance of additional new cases as below 25 per cent probability. Here's the latest WHO situation report, and a bit:
. . . .One sample taken from a suspected case has tested positive for serology (IgG+), and has retrospectively been classified as a confirmed case. . . .

On 05 June 2017, one case has been retrospectively confirmed as positive for EVD by serology with a date of onset of 29 April 2017. This case was previously reported as a suspected case and is part of the known transmission chain. The contacts for this individual have already been followed up and graduated from the contact follow up period. The date of the last confirmed case reported remains as 11 May 2017.

One new suspected case has been reported as of 5 June 2017 in the Ngayi health area, with 15 associated contacts being followed up daily, a sample has been taken to test for EVD. Therefore there are currently a total of five confirmed, three probable and one suspected case. Of these, four survived and four died, resulting in a case fatality rate of 50%.

The confirmed and probable cases were reported from Nambwa (four confirmed and two probable), Ngayi (one probable) and Mabongo (one confirmed). The outbreak remains confined to Likati Health Zone.

Modelling suggests the risk of further cases is currently low but not negligible, and decreases with each day without new confirmed/probable cases. As of the reporting date, 76% of simulated scenarios predict no further cases in the next 30 days. . . .

Now you know. Off for a late sushi lunch, with my grown son!


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