Monday, June 12, 2017

Nation-Wide Ebola Epidemic Risk Inside Congo Reduced To "Moderate"; 83 Percent Probability Of No More New Cases: WHO

What a difference early -- and aggressive, comprehensively resourced -- public health efforts make, in viral epidemic outbreaks. Consider that this 2017 outbreak is now nearly fully arrested, just three elapsed months on.

The last one became a full-on multi-country epidemic -- and lasted nearly two and three quarter years; tens of thousands died. Here only four have died -- and four others are now Ebola survivors. Still -- we must remain vigilant. Here is the latest good news, from WHO:

. . . .On 08 June 2017, no new confirmed, probable or suspected EVD cases were reported. The last confirmed case was isolated on 17 May 2017 and tested negative for EVD by PCR for the second time on 21 May 2017. There are currently a total of five confirmed and three probable cases. Of these, four survived and four died, resulting in a case fatality rate of 50%. The confirmed and probable cases were reported from Nambwa (four confirmed and two probable), Ngayi (one probable) and Mabongo (one confirmed) in Likati Health Zone.

All contacts completed the follow up monitoring period. Active case search is ongoing and thirteen community alerts were reported and investigated, none of which fulfilled the criteria to be a suspect case.

Modelling suggests the risk of further cases is currently low but not negligible, and decreases with each day without new confirmed/probable cases. As of the reporting date, 83% of simulated scenarios predict no further cases in the next 30 days. . . .

Now you know. Good news indeed -- and onward, now to a new week, and new challenges.


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