Told Ya' So! At ASCO -- Head To Head -- Looks Like Nivolumab Will Best MK-3475

I should also note that BMS has designed its study protocols in a way that once Phase III starts (next week) -- it will be only a fairly small number of weeks, before the proof will be there for regulatory approval. In short, BMS will catch -- and perhaps pass -- Merck's filing by the end of the Summer of 2014.

You read it here first -- from Seeking Alpha, at the BMS Call this morning:

. . . .[Morgan Stanley -- David Risinger:]

. . .[My] question is with respect to Merck PD-1 trial head to head versus Yervoy, that’s going to readout soon, it seems extraordinarily likely that it will beat your Yervoy head to head, so how should investor think about that? And then third with respect to your Phase 3 head and neck, could just talk about the timeline for that? It seems like you’re ahead of Merck there, but I’m not sure. . . .

[Bristol Myers Squibb] Michael Grobstein - Director

So let me take the other two so. With regard to Merck, Yervoy head to head, I think that contextualized the number one why the data we’re seeing in combination and that we’re seeing 94% and 88% of patients of survive. Consistently no matter what PD-L1 you look at, Bristol-Meyers Squibb, other companies, you’ll see anywhere between 69% and 71% of patients alive at one year. I don’t know, if you can do the math, 96 minus 81 is something like a sufficient number of patients. So that there is a real difference there, so I believe the answer to your question about head-to-head study is for me answered by combinations. . . .

Overall, I am highly confident post ASCO that the lead is in BMS's capable hands here. But weep not for Whitehouse Station, as Merck will make perhaps $6 billion a year in peak sales with pembrolizumab; I just think nivolumab may easily triple that figure. That's my guess. More later tonight -- if I am not too sore.