Monday, January 13, 2014

UPDATES: Oss Edition -- From Mr. Frazier's Talk -- Several Posts Coming; Nothing New On Animal Health or Consumer Health (OTC), Post This Morning

I'll have a few more posts here shortly, tonight. Nothing new -- or off-script -- was said about the goofy Novartis rumors, though. Let's get that out of the way at the top, here. [Yep -- been a pretty busy night, on my second job. . . hah!]

So. . . I'll go smallest first, here -- one that I had apparently missed, on the divestiture side -- Merck has CLOSED the divestiture of the Netherlands API facility (legacy Organon/Schering Plough), to Aspen (effective October 1, 2013). We had reported the talks (rumored in February 2013; talks confirmed in June of 2013). What Merck received was small, and thus not reported -- as immaterial to Merck. In June, Reuters had guessed it was a billion dollar deal. [I don't think it was nearly that much; below the blue ital pull quote, is my guess. But it is. . . an experienced guess.]

However, the FAQ put out (a PDF file) with Mr. Frazier's talk offers us the size of the annual revenue streams which were sold off:
. . . .On October 1, Merck sold its active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) manufacturing business, including the related manufacturing facility, in the Netherlands to Aspen Holdings (Aspen).

The annual sales associated with the API business are approximately $200 million. In addition, Aspen will also acquire certain products within Diversified Brands, which will transfer to Aspen effective December 31, 2013. The annual sales associated with the branded products to be divested are approximately $230 million. . . .

On this one -- (despite Reuters' June reporting) it wouldn't surprise me if Merck got something slightly less than 1.5 times sales (not almost 2.5 times sales, as the Reuters guess implies) -- or about $645 million, from Aspen. Understand -- that figure is a pure guess, on my part. Even so, if I am even remotely right, it is likely that the bulk of the roughly $645 million will be paid out to Merck, over time, or is otherwise in the form of equity available in Aspen, i.e., also payable only over time. We will likely never know. And I'm okay with that -- so you should be, too. Hah!

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