Friday, January 31, 2014

Condor's "Best Guess-timates®" -- For Next Wednesday Morning Full Year 2013 Non-GAAP Earnings Per Share

I usually make predictions right about at this point in the public company year end reporting cycle -- and this year is no exception. However, I've decided to brand my predictions in 2014, as "Condor's Best Guess-timates®". Heh.

UPDATED @ 2 PM EST: After doing just a little more thinking, and looking at/digging into the Q4 2013 releases of J&J, Abbott and of course Pfizer -- I am increasingly convinced that Merck could come in just a little light at the sales line, in Q4 2013. My initial guess was $11.36 billion (before foreign exchange effects); now I am thinking closer to $11.25 billion, or about $100 million short, at the Q4 2013 sales line. On perhaps $47 billion for the year 2013, that may seem smallish. True enough -- but I do think sales revenue -- more on margin, than on volume/mix -- is contracting a bit, with increasingly constrained payers, across the globe. And we see the first few months of Medicaid expansion in these Q4 figures, which should push volumes up, but margins down.

Now we wait. [END, UPDATED Portion]

I'll add to this, significantly, later today -- but the graphic at right conveys my top line thoughts, at the moment.

I do not expect any "transactional" Animal Health announcement.

In a very similar vein, I do not expect any Consumer Health announcement.

So, stay tuned -- more granularity, some time after the lunch hour. In the mean time, let's keep the Universe spinning in good karma.


Anonymous said...

Will this news impact your 'Best-guess?'

Condor said...

Thanks so much Anon.! --

That is a great forward looking article (i.e., 2014 and beyond) -- and nice recap of the coming (next generation) Hep C treatments. Merck looks to be a distant third or fourth in next gen space. So, Merck's 2013 year end won't reflect any of that -- except for the R&D spend on it -- no revenue.

As to actual 2013 reported Merck sales revenue in Hep C, Merck's on-market treatment, boceprevir, branded as Victrellis, had long ago lost the battle to Vertex/J&J's telaprevir -- branded as Incivek.

Finally -- for at least the last part of this year 2013, Gilead has "completely Powned" (heh!) Hep C, besting both of the above.

That trend -- Gilead leading all others -- will continue into mid 2014, unless the Abbott spinoff pulls a major timing rabbit out of its hat, at FDA. Could happen -- but not likely to.

Great input!

Thanks again; do stop back -- and Namaste. . .

Condor said...

And here's the link to our backgrounder on Sovaldi®, the Gilead leader I just mentioned -- in current Hep C space.

The all oral dosing is significant. As is the efficacy and -- relatively speaking -- lack of side effects, compared to other options.