We shall see, but the idea that Bridion and Tredaptive are going to be headlines for 2012 is a little disconcerting. Both One of these, Bridion, was among Fred's (Ex-Schering-Plough CEO Fred Hassan's, that is) "Five Stars", back in late 2008-2009; both were given "please do over" reviews at FDA -- Tredaptive was previously called Cordaptive, and was an old-Merck Frosst candidate, a commenter correctly notes. [More precisely, additional study data, as to efficacy and risk profiles was required.]
Now, New Merck expects to get them through FDA in 2012-2013. I just can't imagine that, even if approved, these two will move the needle much on EPS at Whitehouse Station. They just won't be big enough.
On the sunnier side, Merck did beat the Non-GAAP 2011 consensus EPS by two pennies.
However, of additional concern is that Merck has placed its EPS forecast range for full-year 2012 in the lower middle of the bracket, compared to consensus guesses. That is to say, Merck's plus-or-minus $0.05 range around 2012 EPS brackets two cents lower than consensus. This may be refined, and adjusted upward in coming quarters, but there is no promise of that. All in all, a ho-hum year-end 2011 announcement. Per Bloomberg
. . . .The company said it expects to seek approvals of five new medicines between 2012 and 2013. They include two products that have been delayed for years by regulators: Bridion, to reverse the effects of anesthesia, and Tredaptive, a form of niacin meant to raise "good" HDL cholesterol without causing facial flushing.
Merck said it expects full-year 2012 earnings of $3.75 to $3.85 per share, excluding special items. Analysts, on average, expect $3.83 per share. The forecast reflects earnings 0.5 percent lower to 2.1 percent higher than those seen in 2011. . . .
Merck has opened off
9 comments:
The lead story on our intranet site is how office trash pickup is going to two days a week. The cost cutting has gotten to absolute absurdity but I suppose it's one way to beat the street.
Wow.
I'm going to post this (above), as a new post.
In passing, it looks to me as though most of the as-reported "shortness" -- on global consolidated sales revenue in Q4, 2011 was driven by a strengthening US dollar.
The Q4, 2011 sales were about 2 percent lighter than consensus, and rose only 2 percent for the period.
Thanks so much for your comment -- it is deeply appreciated.
Namaste
After speaking to coworkers in other sites (West Point, PA buildings) it turns out this has been the norm for them for at least two years! Further, their desk side trash is collected during office hours so they are treated to the rumbling of a large dumpster through the cube farm while on teleconferences or in meetings.
They have self-regulated to throw wet trash such as lunch leftovers into the break area bins but say it is not uncommon for empty drink containers to pile high in cube cans which are left outside the cube doorways because of an alleged rule about contractors entering cube or office spaces. I bet the bouquet near those break areas isn't very pleasant, either.
It is incredible.
Thanks so much for contributing to my little Merck-observatory, here.
I've made both of these the focus of a new post, above.
Hang in there!
I've lived through much the same, in my prior career -- it will (eventually) get better.
PS: It is ironic that, in part, Merck's currency headwind in Q4 2011 has to do with not being fully-hedged. That, in turn, is likely due to the expectation, at Whitehouse Station, that the US economy won't strengthen too much, and the euro zone will stabilize.
It is possible that the euro-zone will stabilize, but it is also possible now (increasingly so) that the US dollar will continue to firm, as the election nears.
Thus, Merck may see eroding sales revenue in Europe, because it counted Mr. Obama out too soon.
I think he beats Mr. Romney, head-to-head, in November, and prior to that, we will see a Summer 2012 recovery. These are two things Merck was likely betting against, as late as December 2011.
As ever, we shall see.
Namaste
A small correction, Tredaptive is not a legacy SP compound. Rather it, along with Odanacatib (another compound that Merck anticipates filing within the next two years), was discovered by the now shuttered Merck Frosst Research Center.
Thanks! You are, of course, right.
I will fix that now. Cordaptive was the name before.
Namaste
PS: In addition, once a day Januvia received an FDA nod, this evening. Not a huge mover, but moderately good news.
Once a day Janumet (Janumet XR).
Thanks! Once again you are right -- typing too fast.
In any event, not a particularly big deal, as the sales gained on the new FDA approval will be from people already taking another form of Janumet or Januvia (i.e., people not on a once a day regimen).
Net, net -- treading water. And that is likely the central theme of 2012 for Merck -- when it removes its rose colored lenses.
Namaste
Not relative to this comment but I have a "what about' nonetheless as I was not sure where to put it....
Has any one let you know what Schering/Merck is charging retirees for med insurance? North of $750/month for two.
Did you know that the US Gov't requires medicare age retirees to sign up for Medicare? (of course Schmerck loves that because they then only pay 20% as if they are an advantage plan) But of course, I can't find anywhere that either entity notified me of this requirement...Since when can my country require me to be on Medicare when I am paying full bore for health insurance? I believe I am losing the battle..AAAUGUUGGGGHHHHH
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