An astute anonymous commenter points out that two of the top franchises in the "New" Merial Joint Venture (as proposed) -- Frontline®, and Heartgard® -- are already off-patent (as to core franchises), or soon will be -- during 2010. The core Frontline products are already off-patent in Europe, and will be off-patent "later in 2010, in the United States" (according to Merck CEO Dick Clark -- at 2:20 to 2:58 of the Q&A portion of this audiostream -- mp3 format, downloadable). Per the article from Veterinary Practice News, a snippet:
. . . .The top seven brands of the combined venture (Frontline, Heartgard, Ivomec, Nuflor, panacur, Circumvent PCV and Oleovac FMD) would account for about 40 percent of its sales.The companies expect continued growth from Frontline, which accounted for $1 billion in global sales, for the next couple years, even though the basic product went off patent in Europe last year and will go off patent in the U.S. later this year, Clark said. Still, about two-thirds of Frontline revenues came from combination products and other still patent-protected formulations. . . .
This last bit, above, apparently refers to Dick Clark's remarks as well, in which he suggested that the generic competition on these franchises will be mitigated by the fact that the companies have introduced various "combination products" -- to extend the life of the brands.
Even so, here is what the most recent Merck 10-K said, on the topic (at page 75): Animal Health sales are affected by intense competition and the frequent introduction of generic products. . . . Personally, I'd put more stock in the SEC-required full and fair disclosure of a regulatory filing, than in the decidedly blustery rhetoric with which the new Merial JV was announced, this past Tuesday.
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