Oops! -- I neglected to mention that on Tuesday, immediately after the "New Merial" JV announcement, CFO Peter Kellog presented at a Cowen & Co. investor conference.
Streaming audio of the CFO's remarks here; the most important sound-bite? Right here:
". . . .2010 will be a choppy year for the New Merck. . . ."
-- Merck CFO Peter N. Kellog
And, the key slide? Here, at page 17 -- Cozaar/Hyzaar coming off patent; several Temodar patent litigation losses; high spend levels for new product launches; and back-end 2010 loading of any synergy savings:
Thus, I reiterate my thesis that Merck is fully-valued in the near term at any price over $37 per share, on the NYSE -- absent some monumental new developments.
2 comments:
Based on the slide decided to look up what might be launched in 2010.
Found the following article which claims new Merck has placed boceprivir on the back burner and instead is going ahead with their own hep C candidate.
See http://www.boston.com/business/healthcare/articles/2010/03/01/new_merck_has_40_drugs_in_mid__late_stage_tests/
Looking into Hep C drug candidates I found a web site that claims that the Merck's MK-7009, a protease inhibitor like boceprivir, is in phase II.
See http://www.hcvdrugs.com/
Merck doesn't give MK numbers until after proof of concept studies have been positive. This implies that MK-7009 is in late phase II whereas boceprivir was much further along in development in phase III.
For Merck to have placed boceprivir on hold and instead move forward a compound in the same class that is much further behind suggests that they don't think much of boceprivir. In fact it may even have major toxicity issues that they don't like. Otherwise you continue with getting it to market as number 2 for market share and hope a later compound is better than Vertex's compound and will eventually take market share.
As I once heard someone from Merck say they either want to be first to market or best to market.
Of course this is speculation based on news articles and we don't know how reliable the reports are.
Salmon
Fabulous run-down, Salmon -- as ever!
I've made it a new post, all its own right here!
Thanks again!
Namaste
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