Friday, July 10, 2026

Harrowing Models Suggest The Actual Ebola Figures In Ituri Province, DRC Are Double- To Quadruple-... The Confirmed Number Of Cases -- And Deaths.


As we'd said over eight weeks ago, the numbers are certainly much worse than the tested, official case counts.

Here's the latest -- but especially in Ituri, the rates of new cases -- with no traced contact to any other -- suggests this will be a very long-tail outbreak. Yikes:

. . .Four out of every five new Ebola ​cases in parts of Democratic Republic of Congo have no known link to existing patients, a ‌senior World Health Organization official said, warning that the true scale of the outbreak could be two to four times larger than official data suggest.

The figures underscore the challenges facing health workers as they battle to contain the outbreak in the country's northeast, which has so far [by confirmed, tested cases] infected 1,792 people and killed 625, according to government data released on Thursday. . . .

WHO estimates based on modelling and test positivity rates suggest the outbreak, which was declared in mid-May, may be between two and four times larger than the number ​of confirmed cases, he said.

About 90% of all reported cases remain concentrated in Ituri province, particularly in the ​health zones of Bunia, Rwampara, Mongbwalu and Nyakunde, where transmission remains intense. . . .


And as we previously said. . . this is a Musk/Trumpian legacy, too. They gutted USAID, when it was most needed.

नमस्ते

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