But then. . . a cold harsh reality set in -- and it fell back to Earth. . . now trading between $148 and $153 a share.
I think the options skews are pretty accurate here. It was very fully priced at its IPO -- all the rest was just stupid FOMO buying, mostly by retail. Then the larger holders began selling at the over-inflated price -- locking in huge gains, while still holding a fraction of their original allotments. It is the oldest hot IPO game on the planet -- reserved for funds managing north of $2 billion. And it has played out according to Hoyle, yet again.
So -- as the price more and more is dragged toward a "mean" / reality. . . the options skews look for a ~$130 price by September. I agree.
Here's one of the auto-bot rags, on standardized options trading activity over the past week:
. . .[L]et's consider what the options market is showing. This is where investors buy contracts that allow them to bet on whether a particular stock will rise or fall during a given time frame. A call option, considered bullish, offers the holder the right to buy a certain stock at a set price, while a put option, considered bearish, offers the holder the right to sell at a set price.
Options activity shows a 40% probability of SpaceX stock falling below $130 by the middle of September, Reuters reported this week, citing Susquehanna Financial Group strategist Christopher Jacobson. If this happens, IPO investors may see a loss of at least 3.7%.
Though options still are leaning in a bullish direction, the 40% I mentioned above is high enough to suggest investors might want to proceed with caution. . . .
We just find it all. . . hilarious. Musk always over-promises, and under delivers. So too (again), here.
Onward.
नमस्ते
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