Head’s Up! Van Allen Probe-A -- 1,300 Lbs. Of Metal, Burning In — Later Tuesday: NASA

To be clear -- I am sure NASA is double-checking SpaceForce's work. And I think SAIC is generally competent -- but here less than 16 hours away from "burn-in", SpaceForce only gives a plus-or-minus 24 hour guess, on timing. That's pretty underwhelming, from a math standpoint. And the link SpaceForce gave NASA, for updated calcs. . . is actually a password-only SAIC logged site.

So, if it is going to hit your house. . . it is just gonna'. . . hit your house, pal. Crazy. Here's the more well-thought out piece, from NASA:

. . .NASA’s Van Allen Probe A is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere almost 14 years after launch. From 2012 to 2019, the spacecraft and its twin, Van Allen Probe B, flew through the Van Allen belts, rings of charged particles trapped by Earth’s magnetic field, to understand how particles were gained and lost. The belts shield Earth from cosmic radiation, solar storms, and the constantly streaming solar wind that are harmful to humans and can damage technology, so understanding them is important.

As of March 9, 2026, [agencies] predicted that the roughly 1,323-pound spacecraft will re-enter the atmosphere at approximately 7:45 p.m. EDT on March 10, 2026, with an uncertainty of +/- 24 hours.

NASA expects most of the spacecraft to burn up as it travels through the atmosphere, but some components are expected to survive re-entry.

The risk of harm coming to anyone on Earth is low — approximately 1 in 4,200. . . .

In any event, while I do trust NASA, it may be that SAIC isn't supplying the best raw telemetry data. . . it might be a good idea to wear that hardhat, after about noon here US time, on Tuesday -- if you're going outside for lunch -- just the same. Grin.

नमस्ते