UPDATE -- On The Spitzer Data, From Trappist-1 System: JWST Has Refined The Probabilities Of Liquid Water, And Thus An Atmosphere, On At Least A Few Exo-Planets...

We wrote extensively about the Spitzer discovery of Trappist, in 2017-18. Back then, the interstellar space science world was set on fire by the idea that there could be up to six potentially life-supporting planets in a single system. At least that many were in a zone where, for at least a fraction of every orbit, these exo-planets might see ice-melts, and thus liquid water on the surface -- under a solar-fueled warmth. That was stupefying, all on its own.

And now, about eight years later -- this (below) is a significant boost, to that data -- via the ultra powerful JWST 'scope. [To be sure, you may go judge the relative probabilities for yourself, as the data are displayed (at the link) as bands of computer modeled- v. actual- observed. . . values. "What is the more likely scenario?", I found myself asking. . . myself. Heh.]

It seems possible at least that one (or more?) of the exo-planets, Trappist-e, might have what we call a secondary atmosphere. That is. . . an Earth-like one. It is so named, because our first atmosphere was likely burned off by solar radiation, and consisted of mostly hydrogen and helium (i.e., not conducive to life, as we know it). Then over billions of years, water evaporation and rain and wind cycles likely slowly generated our thick carbon dioxide / oxygen system -- which is VERY conducive to the kinds of life with which we are familiar.

Now to be certain, this is based on only four passes, from JWST -- with much more data to be analyzed in the coming years, but it seems at least possible that Trappist e could have a secondary atmosphere. [However, all these Trappist-worlds are likely tidally-locked, so the biology might be very different than what obtains on spinning Earth.] In any event, here is the latest update -- from NASA:

. . .Scientists are in the midst of observing the exoplanet TRAPPIST-1 e with NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope.

Careful analysis of the results so far presents several potential scenarios for what the planet’s atmosphere and surface may be like, as NASA science missions lay key groundwork to answer the question, “are we alone in the universe?”

“Webb’s infrared instruments are giving us more detail than we’ve ever had access to before, and the initial four observations we’ve been able to make of planet e are showing us what we will have to work with when the rest of the information comes in,” said Néstor Espinoza of the Space Telescope Science Institute in Baltimore, Maryland, a principal investigator on the research team. Two scientific papers detailing the team’s initial results are published in the Astrophysical Journal Letters. . . .

And. . . a 2017-era NASA explainer (now largely out-dated, by the above JWST data!), of what Spitzer saw back then, when this Trappist system was first discovered:


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