As we mentioned last week, NASA yesterday hosted a teleconference with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the international Solar Cycle Prediction Panel at which the various experts opined that our Sol has reached "solar maximum". Even so, the experts' consensus is that the strong geo-magnetic storms we see from it. . . could continue -- into mid 2025.
The Sun goes through an approximately 11 year cycle, transitioning between low and high magnetic activity. Thus, about every 11 years, at the height of the solar cycle, the Sun’s magnetic poles flip -- here on Earth, that would be like the North and South poles swapping places every decade -- and the Sun transitions from being calm to a very active and explosive mode.
Here is the full NASA run-down -- on the press conference -- but we should expect a few more events like that of October 3-4 (which reached Earth around October 10-11), yet in this cycle:
“. . .This announcement doesn’t mean that this is the peak of solar activity we’ll see this solar cycle,” said Elsayed Talaat, director of space weather operations at NOAA. “While the Sun has reached the solar maximum period, the month that solar activity peaks on the Sun will not be identified for months or years.”
Scientists will not be able to determine the exact peak of this solar maximum period for many months because it’s only identifiable after they’ve tracked a consistent decline in solar activity after that peak. However, scientists have identified that the last two years on the Sun have been part of this active phase of the solar cycle, due to the consistently high number of sunspots during this period. Scientists anticipate that the maximum phase will last another year or so before the Sun enters the declining phase, which leads back to solar minimum. Since 1989, the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel -- an international panel of experts sponsored by NASA and NOAA -- has worked together to make their prediction for the next solar cycle. . . .
“Solar Cycle 25 sunspot activity has slightly exceeded expectations,” said Lisa Upton, co-chair of the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel and lead scientist at Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas. “However, despite seeing a few large storms, they aren’t larger than what we might expect during the maximum phase of the cycle.”
The most powerful flare of the solar cycle so far was an X9.0 on Oct. 3 (X-class denotes the most intense flares, while the number provides more information about its strength).
NOAA anticipates additional solar and geomagnetic storms during the current solar maximum period, leading to opportunities to spot auroras over the next several months, as well as potential technology impacts. Additionally, though less frequent, scientists often see fairly significant storms during the declining phase of the solar cycle. . . .
[And as we've mentioned before, essentially all Suns are born as pairs, with one either being flung off, or consumed in the first million or so years of their joint lives. That's my second, slightly poetic-licensed. . . graphic's teaching.]
Now you know -- and. . . do go cheer for the Buffs Saturday, all you NOAA and NCAR Boulder based fans!
नमस्ते
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