We will be are now back, to explain, but see this 2013 backgrounder.
We were put in mind of this, because a long time reader was checking up on our older (2012-2014) predictions, as to specific stock bets, long and short, in the life sciences vertical.
This one in particular was pretty obvious to anyone who is versed in. . . the math of finance. Add to it, that the successive crews of management, and board seats. . . were mostly known for over-levering assets, in order to pay out what amounted to wasting dividends to private equity investors, and then often filing a chapter if all the rosy predictions didn't turn out as planned. [And that is almost exactly what happened to Valeant -- as it became Bausch Health.]
Here in 2024, nearly a full decade later, a renewed team is going to split the biz into a revamped B+L brand, and leave the lower margin businesses (in a remain-co, called "Health"). . . to likely whither and die. You could look at the symbol "BHC" and read all the 2024 coverage on it. Or. . . you could just re-read anything I ever wrote here, about Brent Saunders and / or Fast Fred Hassan.
Same old; same old. Here's the chart, for the record -- now, more than a decade's worth of "paths, diverging in the wood":
. . .[T]he [Bausch Health company has endured a] shocking decline over three years. Indeed, the share price is down a whopping 72% in the last three years. So we're relieved for long term holders to see a bit of uplift. The thing to think about is whether the business has really turned around.
Since Bausch Health Companies has shed US $136m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics. . . .
[Confidential Hint Dept.: it hasn't (as to the first) and it has been, as to the second. Cheers!] Onward.
नमस्ते
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