To be sure, the election is very close -- especially as to electoral college votes. But now we are only 22 days away -- and prior experience tells us that it will be unlikely that any major shift will occur in these last hours.
And so, on the popular vote, Kamala is likely to win by a margin of over 10 million votes.
Of course, Tangerine will (as a malign would-be despot) litigate all results in swing states. So we may not have a final (court ordered) winner until late December 2024.
But the outcome is pretty clear: Trump will lose. Here's 538.com's latest:
. . .The difference boils down to one thing: trends, not levels. If you compare Harris’s margin over Trump in polls released Oct. 10 to the results of previous polls by the same pollsters in the same places, Harris’s margin has increased by an average of 0.4 percentage points.
And according to our election model, which looks at differences in results among all pollsters to identify whether a firm leans to the left or the right, the polls from Emerson in particular have tended to underestimate Harris compared to polls with the same methodology (a mix of robocalls and online interviews) in the same geographies.
This means our starting point when looking at these new polls is that Harris is doing better than they indicate, by about a point on vote margin, and that she is either holding steady or gaining ground. . . .
That sure sounds right. . . to me.
So you may safely ignore all of the frothy hard right's belchings.
Out.
नमस्ते
No comments:
Post a Comment