It really is just about all over -- but for the shouting (barring a debate catastrophe, I guess). Here's the latest:
. . .According to the Cook Political Report Swing State Project Survey, released on August 14, when third party candidates are included, Harris is leading Trump in five of the seven battleground states. In May 2024, Trump was leading Biden in six of the states, while he and Biden were tied in one.
The report shows that Harris is two points ahead of Trump overall across the seven states, on 46 percent to Trump's 44 percent, while she is two points ahead in North Carolina and Michigan, four points ahead in Arizona, and five points ahead in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In Nevada, Trump is five points ahead, while they are tied in Georgia.
Across all seven states, Harris has reduced Trump's margins from May 2024. The biggest swing is in North Carolina, where Harris has wiped out Trump's 8 point lead and is now 2 points ahead, on 46 percent to Trump's 44 percent. Harris has also reduced Trump's lead in Nevada by 3 points. . . .
And now. . . we see that most sensible adults will not vote for a felon. Not surprising, in the least. . . we've watched the Trump signs disappear from lawns all over Arizona in the last three winter breaks. He has lost that state, to be certain -- and Rasmussen's over-sampling of GOP households left them. . . effectively. . . blind -- to it.
Indeed, and moreover, I expect to see Kamala get a new ~5% bump, nationwide, coming out of the convention in Chicago, late next week -- all good news. [Fine. Give Tangerine ID, MT, WY, FL, TX, TN, MS, AL and even the swing states of GA -- and NV. He still loses, by a sizeable margin, in the Electoral College, now.] Out.
नमस्ते
3 comments:
I think your math is wrong. She needs to carry 3 of 7 and they each have to be worth >15 electoral votes to just carry 3.
We shall see. She's way ahead in Wisconsin, Penn. and Ariz. That alone will do it. Trump needs 5 or 6, of the 7 because he's solidly ahead in only the sparsely populated (fewer EC vote totals) NV race. I am even conceding GA -- though Kamala may yet flip that blue, and if so, then that with WI and AZ ends Trump's math.
But as ever, some parts of the map could shift between now and November.
He is very unlikely to open his map up to new territory, now -- though.
Cheers!
Once at 12:03 am… seems my math is working out. Cheers!
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