[Originally posted 11.24.2023] As we finish the annual "day after" dim sum feast on Cermak. . . . I'll take this moment to note that by December 31, 2023, Rahway will undoubtedly be able to truthfully say it sells the world's most lucrative single therapeutic agent, vastly eclipsing Humira -- at over $23 billion a year. [We should note, of course, that since the below projections come from a company known to Wall Street as a public company for nearly as long as there have been US public companies -- the executives likely shade the guidance to be a
little conservative. . . understanding that "missing" by being overly optimistic will be harshly punishing to the stock price, while missing on the low side simply causes a bump up on the NYSE. In sum, Merck's management is unlikely to be too far out over its skis -- all as Elon Musk so often is, as a mere baby in public company land. A big baby, but still. . . a baby.] So, Rahway's year end might be slightly better than the below, when the dust settles.
True, it will have expensed the $5.5 billion, previously disclosed, on the Daiichi Sankyo deal -- and about $100 million on the Caraway M&A deal in the quarter, but no one will even notice, given the hoards of cash being trucked in on pembrolizumab, thus (from
the Q3 2023 guidance):
. . .Merck now expects its full-year non-GAAP EPS to be between $1.33 and $1.38, including a negative impact of foreign exchange of approximately 6 percentage points, at mid-October 2023 exchange rates. This revised non-GAAP EPS range reflects the following, which were not previously included in the outlook:
Additional strength in the business of approximately $0.15 per share.
A pretax charge of $5.5 billion, or $1.70 per share, for the collaboration agreement with Daiichi Sankyo.
Estimated expense in the fourth quarter of 2023 of approximately $0.04 per share to advance the ADC assets and finance the transaction with Daiichi Sankyo.
A 1%, or approximately $0.05 per share, incremental negative impact of foreign exchange.
The non-GAAP EPS range excludes acquisition- and divestiture-related costs, costs related to restructuring programs, income and losses from investments in equity securities, and a previously disclosed charge related to settlements with certain plaintiffs in the Zetia antitrust litigation. . . .
Now you know -- (
stay tuned on Feb. 1, 2024) and do go enjoy the piping hot green tea by the kettle, and the flat noodles, with steamed barbequed pork buns and curry chicken stuffed turnover pastries!
नमस्ते
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