Tangent: The Supremes Tell Musk... "Tell Your Story Walkin', Bub..."

Welp. This has turned out just as we said it would. When you lead a public company, and take the public's funding -- you are subject to certain very sensible duties -- like not lying -- about your stock.

Mr. Musk got off very easily after 2018-era tweets that misled the public, and his shareholders, about Tesla stock. In his settled action with the SEC Enforcement staffers, he agreed to do certain things, to avoid a worse outcome. Specifically, he agreed to a $20 million fine for making misleading tweets, related to his '34 Act registered stock -- and agreed to have his GC pre-approve all tweets that mentioned his stock.

Then, several years later, he tried to argue that his own agreement violated his free expression rights. Hilarious.

What a churlish cad.

He AGREED, in writing (while being advised by some of the best lawyers in the US) -- all to avoid a loss at trial (and an order removing him as an officer, director or any other role of power at Tesla); with hundreds of millions of dollars in fines possible (he had lied about a potential multi-billion Dollar buyout offer) -- and even a chance of jail time (sorta' like Martin Shkreli).

After losing on appeal in the Second Circuit, the Supremes. . . laughed at his petition for cert., thus:

. . .Musk's settlement resolved the SEC lawsuit accusing him of defrauding investors. Under the agreement, Musk and Tesla each paid $20 million fines and he gave up his role as the company's chairman. Musk also agreed to let a Tesla lawyer pre-approve some posts he made on the social media platform then called Twitter before Musk bought the company and renamed it X.

Musk later sought to terminate the pre-approval mandate, with his lawyers in a court filing calling it a "government-imposed muzzle" that amounted to an illegal prior restraint on his speech. . . .

Now you know. This chucklehead. . . geez.

[More recently, he's been spouting whyte replacement paranoia themes / crazy conspiracy theories -- on his cash burning platform I call X-itter. Not exactly the kind of expression that we all should be rushing to protect, overall -- as it often strays very close to intentional hate crimes, against protected classes.]

Onward.

नमस्ते

Of "Vampire Facials"... That End Up Being... Debilitating, Life Long Medical Problems.

It has been a minute since I put up an "unlicensed, unapproved" medicines post.

But this one. . . is so egregious, it rivals Jim Bakker's colloidial-silver solution being sold on cable-TV as "a cure" -- for COVID-19 -- back in 2020. Despicable.

In this current case, at least three women have tested positive for HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, apparently after being micro-needled, in a "vampire facial" from an unlicensed supposed med-spa, in New Mexico. Understandably, the owner is facing jail time. Here's a bit, from NPR:

. . .Many popular cosmetic treatments are delivered with needles, such as Botox to iron out wrinkles and fillers to plump lips. A "vampire facial," or platelet-rich plasma microneedling procedure, involves drawing a client's own blood, separating its components, then using tiny needles to inject plasma into the face to rejuvenate the skin. . . .

The New Mexico Department of Health began investigating the spa in the summer of 2018 after it was notified that a woman in her 40s had tested positive for HIV even though she had no known risk factors. The woman reported exposure to needles through the procedure at the clinic that spring.

The spa closed in fall 2018 after the investigation was launched, and its owner was prosecuted for practicing medicine without a license. . . .

The idea that a "lip plumper" (or similar) treatment could / would lead to AIDS. . .? Damn. Just. . . Damn. Be careful out there. Always -- always, demand to see every license, on paper before sitting down. Out.

नमस्ते

Anon. Points Us To The Layoff News At BMS -- As Its Keytruda® (Pembrolizumab) Competitor, Called Opdivo®, Saw Declining Sales Last Year, And In Q1 2024...

From about mid-2014 to late-2017, the immuno oncology "horse race" was on, between Merck's bio-engineered PD-1 inhibitor (branded as Keytruda) and BMS's. . . theirs being called Opdivo. We covered it with at least 100 posts in that time frame. [Search the upper left dialog box if you'd like some background, from our perspective -- here. And, Merck has hit the $22 billion a year mark a year ahead of Wall Street's estimates -- here in 2024, not 2025.]

But as the markets matured in immuno-oncology, in the main, Rahway's has shown stronger statistically better (longer term) survival data than BMS's agent has. [In the US, it is difficult to get full reimbursement for a "second best" agent, with a winner already available, in many solid organ tumors.] And so -- as of last Thursday, Bristol Myers Squibb began retrenching, thus:

. . .Bristol Myers Squibb on Thursday said that around 2200 staff will be impacted by cost-cutting measures designed to save about $1.5 billion by the end of 2025, with two-thirds of the savings coming from R&D. The initiative will reduce management layers in an effort to speed decision making, along with pipeline rationalisation and site consolidation. . . .

However, revenue from Opdivo fell 6% to $2.1 billion.

Chief commercialisation officer Adam Lenkowsky explained that the PD-1 inhibitor was hit by changes in buying patterns in the US, but the company is "confident we will see accelerating growth this year. . . ."

I would not bet on many more high growth quarters for BMS's Opdivo -- Keytruda has become the gold standard choice here (especially inside the US). So we extend our best meditations, to the families of the 2,200 BMS people being let go. Onward -- now you know.

नमस्ते

It Seems Dark Energy -- Universe-Wide -- Is... "Thawing?" That Is, It Seems To Be... Waning.

As ever, first -- the caveats: the data is strong, but the universe is very vary large. Very large. So over billions of light years, small differences in measured assumptions. . . can become magnified. That is, it could be a measurement error. [But two independent sources are now converging on this, as being real, and not an artifact.]

Moreover, this is approaching five sigma, nearly a gold standard for significance. More to come, of course -- but the notion is that maybe the universe is a closed system -- an endless series of big bangs and big collapses. [In a poetic/metaphorical sense sense, confirming endless "reincarnations" of all that we will ever see.] That we are not flying apart, never to fall back in, to a center.

Here's the latest, via Wired.com:

. . .If dark energy is weakening, it can’t be a cosmological constant. Instead, it may be the same sort of field that many cosmologists think sparked a moment of exponential expansion during the universe’s birth. This kind of “scalar field” could fill space with an amount of energy that looks constant at first—like the cosmological constant—but eventually starts to slip over time.

“The idea that dark energy is varying is very natural,” said Paul Steinhardt, a cosmologist at Princeton University. Otherwise, he continued, “it would be the only form of energy we know which is absolutely constant in space and time.”

But that variability would bring about a profound paradigm shift: We would not be living in a vacuum, which is defined as the lowest-energy state of the universe. Instead, we would inhabit an energized state that’s slowly sliding toward a true vacuum. “We’re used to thinking that we’re living in the vacuum,” Steinhardt said, “but no one promised you that.”

Joshua Frieman, a cosmologist at the University of Chicago and a member of the DESI collaboration who didn’t work on the data analysis, said he would be glad to see Lambda CDM fall. As a theorist, he proposed theories of thawing dark energy in the 1990s, and he more recently cofounded the Dark Energy Survey -- a project that searched for deviations from the standard model from 2013 to 2019 and created one of the three supernova catalogs DESI used. But he also remembers being burnt by disappearing cosmological anomalies in the past. “My reaction to this is to be intrigued,” but “until the errors get smaller, I’m not going to write my [Nobel] acceptance speech,” Frieman joked. . . .

The beauty of all this is that Einstein (were he alive) would celebrate wildly, if the next-gen data refutes his "constant" definitively. He always said that we learn the most when our best presumptions turn out to be. . . in error. Onward, grinning into a busy week ahead.

नमस्ते

As In June Of 2021, Hubble's Third Gyroscope Is Rendering Inconsistent Readings -- Hubble May Go To A One Gyro- Slew Configuration...

This 'scope has been in service since 1990 -- and last had six gyros installed in 2009, by the then space shuttle "capture / repair" missions. So it has had a wonderful ride. . . but is, indeed a very old spacecraft.

With the next-gen space scope (JWST) operating flawlessly, and providing far sharper imagery. . . it may be, that in due course, this one is allowed to safely deorbit. But for now, science will continue (once the fix is applied, ground-side) -- even if need be, on one gyroscope. Here's the latest:

. . .The telescope automatically entered safe mode when one of its three gyroscopes gave faulty readings. The gyros measure the telescope’s turn rates and are part of the system that determines which direction the telescope is pointed. While in safe mode, science operations are suspended, and the telescope waits for new directions from the ground.

This particular gyro caused Hubble to enter safe mode in November after returning similar faulty readings. The team is currently working to identify potential solutions. If necessary, the spacecraft can be re-configured to operate with only one gyro, with the other remaining gyro placed in reserve. The spacecraft had six new gyros installed during the fifth and final space shuttle servicing mission in 2009. To date, three of those gyros remain operational, including the gyro currently experiencing fluctuations. Hubble uses three gyros to maximize efficiency, but could continue to make science observations with only one gyro if required. . . .

Now you know. . . onward, grinning, with a legacy graphic -- and baby girls due here this evening.

नमस्ते

The River Buoy / Razor Wire Barriers Will Be Removed, But USDC Judge Ezra Ruled That The Treaty Is Not "Self-Executing".

This is a small update -- as Judge Ezra has also ruled that all of the federal government Rivers and Harbors Act claims, and the immigration laws which vest singular authority at the federal level for border matters. . . remain intact.

And Texas has (as we've explained, ad nauseum) already lost -- on those. [Texas has appealed those losses, and it is all on appeal, and fully-briefed in the Fifth Circuit, with arguments due in June.]

All he held here, in 41 pages, published overnight, it that the Supremacy Clause by itself, cannot make the Treaty of Hidalgo from the 1840s self-executing, as against an individual state in the union.

So -- a minor matter, as I say. Onward, grinning.

नमस्ते

Just A Little More Color, On One Franchise That Will Begin "The Backfilling" -- In The 2030s, As Pembrolizumab Begins To Lose Exclusivity, Then: Winrevair®

To be clear, Keytruda^® will roll on, with global revenues increasing about 20% per year. . . into the early 2030s. That's a huge competitive advantage -- lapping the field, year after year. But should unforeseen patent trouble arise (in the form of a Congressional move, to more forcefully limit patent evergreening) -- it will be products like winreviar, that keep Merck chugging along like the cash flow juggernaut it is.

It was indeed an excellent Q1 2024, and the NYSE-traded stock should reach into the $140-something range -- perhaps even before year end 2024 -- as the amped up guidance offered by Mr. Davis yesterday appears in the as actually-reported results next quarter and beyond. Here's that story, from FiercePharma, as part of its review of Rawway's first quarter 2024 "upside surprise" results:

. . .Four months into Davis’ tenure as CEO in 2021, the company acquired sotatercept in an $11.5 billion buyout of Acceleron. Data analytics group FactSet has projected sales of Winrevair to reach $3.9 billion by 2029.

“Strategic business development focused on the best external science remains an important priority,” the CEO said. . . .

When asked to estimate Winrevair’s sales this year, Davis reiterated that the company does not provide guidance for its individual products. He did declare that the launch is off to a strong start, with prescriptions increasing along with repeat prescriptions. Shipments to patients’ homes is underway. And the company is seeing excellent access with “no real limits,” Davis said, which is a good sign considering the drug was approved less than a month ago, he added.

R&D chief Dean Li, M.D., Ph.D., said that there will be continued “data flows that will continue to inform and strengthen,” Winrevair’s profile. The company also is working on an auto-injector that should improve uptake for the drug, which is currently provided in a vial.

“We believe that the vast majority with time will use it as self-administration,” Li said. “This is a patient population that’s quite used to doing injections. . . .”

I continue to believe that $250,000 a year -- even though it is a life saver. . . is overpriced, for most US retail patients -- as that means Merck makes back all $11 billion it paid for the whole company, in about five years.

The drug will remain on patent for over 20 years. The Condor's view is that moves like that, indeed, are likely going to lead to more Congressional action to restrict US-drug pricing -- or incentivize the company to more sharply increase EU and/or Canadian and Japanese prices -- to allow the US prices to come down. . . between now and 2028, on all life-saving pharmaceuticals, generally.

[We've already seen one version of this (as we mentioned last week), with Merck allocating more supply of Gardasil to EU and Japan and UK -- while shorting its contractual commits -- to WHO/GAVI/UNICEF -- for very low priced African deliveries, in this supply constrained year.]

नमस्ते

Merck Posts Very Strong Q1 2024 Results -- And Expects Even Better -- In The Back Half Of 2024...

The pembrolizumab franchise is clocking ever-increasing sales. . . and is as we've said, now the world's highest selling single therapeutic agent. That will continue past 2030 -- as I've long explained, despite less rosy guesses from Wall Street, about earlier patent expiries. It is always possible that a better agent for oncology comes along. . . but other than that (which no one might foresee at this point), the runway is clear.

So Merck is back over $130 a share -- and probably is looking at a 12 month fair value closer to $140, once Winrevair sales really start accelerating. Here's the Reuters analysis:

. . .[T]he company is making good progress on improving access to Winrevair, with several insurers and other payers already establishing coverage for it.

"Overall, we see today's results as consistent with the recent solid trends seen from Merck's business," J.P.Morgan analyst Chris Schott said.

The primary focus for Merck is Winrevair, Schott said, adding that he expects rapid uptake of the novel PAH drug, from the second half of the year. . . .

New Jersey-based Merck said it expected annual earnings between $8.53 and $8.65 per share, up from its previous forecast of $8.44 to $8.59. Analysts had expected earnings of $8.56 per share. The company's new forecast includes a $0.26 per share charge for its $680-million acquisition of cancer drug developer Harpoon Therapeutics, which closed in the first quarter of 2024, Merck said. The drugmaker forecast 2024 sales between $63.1 billion and $64.3 billion, up from its previous forecast of $62.7 billion to $64.2 billion. Analysts had expected sales of $63.83 billion. . . .

Now you know -- onward, grinning into the sunshine, here.

नमस्ते

[Plus Video!] Courtesy Our Commenter, A Look At A Miles-Wide Obsidian / Gem-Like "Volcanic Lake" On Tempestuous Moon Io, Around Jupiter.

It would be quite a sight to see -- a nearly mirror-like obsidian / "volcanic glass" surface, about 127 miles long, with a great white peak in the center. . . reflecting the vast face of Lord Jupiter, from time to time -- highlighted, in the dim sunlight on that violent world.

Io is a very active little moon, regularly squeezed and tugged out of round by Jupiter's crushing gravitational / tidal forces, and bombarded by Jupiter's vast magnetic storms / radiation, on the regular. This makes Io. . . an active volcano-rich world -- and a nearly-smooth orb, as it is regularly being resurfaced by lava flows that cool, and then reheat -- and erupt. What a vision to see -- and the graceful Juno craft, via its biggest camera. . . just recently had a front row seat -- and saw it all,beaming the raw data back to us here, on our little blue marble.

Here's the latest, per CNN's science desk:

. . .Close flybys of Io, one of Jupiter’s moons and the most volcanically active world in our solar system, have revealed a lava lake and a towering feature called “Steeple Mountain” on the moon’s alien surface.

NASA’s Juno spacecraft, which first arrived to study Jupiter and its moons in 2016, flew within roughly 930 miles (1,500 kilometers) of the lava world’s surface in December and February to capture the first detailed images of Io’s northern latitudes.

It has been more than 20 years since a mission flew so closely by Io, and the spacecraft’s camera, called JunoCam, captured high-resolution images that showcased active volcanic plumes, mountain peaks and a glass-smooth lake of cooled lava. . . .

Do click below -- for an amazingly artistic interp, of the Juno-Cam data:



नमस्ते

Since Lynparza® Is In The News, Today... We Will Rerun Ours, From 2018, On The Whole Long History Here -- Involving Merck/S-P...

FiercePharma has a story on Lynparza out this morning. It is overall immaterial to Merck, as the changing landscape described there. . . doesn't much move the needle as to Merck everall revenue before 2028 -- but it offers a chance to remind, about the longish, and tangled, various corporate histories, here. So. . . see below:

[Original dateline -- 12.03.2018:] If you were smart enough to buy in to Tesaro's Citi Morgan Stanley-managed IPO six years ago -- at $13.50/share (or even in the after-market at around $15), and hold -- today, you are pretty happy. . . as GSK is buying your holdings for $75/share -- all cash. That's a more than five-fold return, in under six years. Sweet.

Since Tesaro in-licensed several of the legacy Merck (and in the case of rolapitant, at least, legacy Schering-Plough) oncology related cast-offs, after the bust-up of Schering-Plough. . . in truth, we have watched this company's progress since at least March of 2010, on and off.

[Interestingly, and ironically (since Merck once owned it -- via S-P), the rolapitant program came to be a commercial competitor of Merck's Emend^®, as a nausea treatment in chemo.] In any event, today we learn that, as part of Glaxo's retooling (shedding consumer health assets; fully redeploying into / entering oncology). . . Tesaro will become. . . GSK. And the nutritional beverages will be off-loaded. Here's a bit, from one of the many morning stories on it all:

. . . .GlaxoSmithKline is acquiring oncology firm Tesaro in a deal worth $5.1 billion just hours after announcing the sale of its health drinks business in India to Unilever for some $3.7 billion. . . .

“The proposed transaction significantly strengthens GSK’s pharmaceutical business, accelerating the build of GSK’s pipeline and commercial capability in oncology,” GSK said in a statement announcing the Tesaro deal early Monday. . . . It’s all cash with GSK paying $75 a share. . . .

It is said that dull people make their fortunes. . . in real estate (cough -- Trump!), while the sharp make theirs in the stock market. . . and the geniuses? Well. They make theirs trading life science companies, in that stock market. Heh. I honestly don't know anyone who said that, but it sounds good, today. Really stable. . . geniuses -- smile.

नमस्ते

It Seems CEO Devin Nunes... Made A Material, Objectively-Verifiable As FALSE Pair Of Statements, In Today's SEC Form 8-K Filing, For "Truth Social". IRONIC.

Look -- I don't care that much, because any human with a working forebrain will no longer want to own this pig of a stock -- symbol "DJT". But Mr. Nunes, as its '34 Act CEO, has some. . . duties, imposed by decades of SEC case law. One is not to lie, knowingly, about any material matter, related to the stock, in the public square.

And a second is to correct a material misstatement, once made, again knowingly -- by the CEO.

I've seen numerous data-bases, and MSM published reports that put the retail shareholder base at under 50,000 people. The RECORD holders number around. . . 500. And he claims no larger "Wall Street" institution holds the DJT stock, as a long position (I am pretty sure that much is true).

So, when he claimed on air yesterday, and repeated it -- in an SEC filed Form 8-K (Material Developments) today... that he has "millions" -- or even "hundreds of thousands" of retail shareholders. . . he was lying, and he knew it.

Please let the SEC enforcement lawyers take a look at this 8-K.

This is willful -- and material -- misstatement, of fact -- not a projection, not "forward looking information". It is a material factual claim. . . one that is. . . clearly false. [Of course, if the DJT transfer agent, or the renamed "EFHutton" brokerage firm in Georgia (or other similar, and reputable representative of the company) will sign and notarize an affidavit that there are "retail holders" into the millions, under just five or ten or fifty record holder names. . . I will gladly print him a complete apology.]

Onward -- but this is. . . just so. . . on brand!

Me? I'd expect the SEC to ask after this -- messrs. DJT, "Truth" and Nunes, in due course. . . .

नमस्ते

A Very Cogent NYT Opinion -- By Jamelle Bouie -- On The UAW Win In Tennessee, And Its Deeply Resonant Civil Rights... Echoes.

In the NYT, Jamelle Bouie offers a very poignant perspective, on why the sitting GOP governors (thus far, failing) attempts at fear mongering -- about union rights. . . ring a decidedly-discordant and ugly bell. . . to the Jim Crow South. . . just dressed up, in some latter-day morning coats.

Do go read it all -- he is clearly right: this past week was / is concrete evidence of MAGA / GOP party wags cum governors. . . largely seeking the "good ol' days", in Dixie (which never were such, for any non-whyte, non-landed gentry, non-male. . . classes):

. . .The mere potential for union success was so threatening that the day before the vote began, several of the Southern Republican governors announced their opposition to the U.A.W. campaign. “We the governors of Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas are highly concerned about the unionization campaign driven by misinformation and scare tactics that the U.A.W. has brought into our states,” their joint statement reads. “As governors, we have a responsibility to our constituents to speak up when we see special interests looking to come into our state and threaten our jobs and the values we live by.”

It is no shock to see conservative Republicans opposing organized labor. But it is difficult to observe this particular struggle, taking place as it is in the South, without being reminded of the region’s entrenched hostility to unions — or any other institution or effort that might weaken the political and economic dominance of capital over the whole of Southern society. . . .

“In all social systems there must be a class to do the menial duties, to perform the drudgery of life,” Senator James Henry Hammond of South Carolina declared in an 1858 speech. “It constitutes the very mudsill of society and of political government, and you might as well attempt to build a house in the air, as to build either the one or the other, except on this mudsill.”

A decade later and the slave system was dead, crushed underfoot by the armies of emancipation. The landowning Southern elites had lost their greatest asset — a seemingly inexhaustible supply of free labor. They would never regain it, but they would fight as hard as they could to approximate it. . . .

Neither the vote in Chattanooga nor the coming vote of auto workers at the Mercedes-Benz factory near Tuscaloosa, Ala., will be dispositive for the ultimate success of the U.A.W. campaign in the South. Win or lose, this will be a long march for organized labor.

But like a gardener taking stock of her plot for the season ahead, we will have to be patient. Victory might bring the chance to refresh the soil in preparation for a new kind of New South. . . .

We will, of course, cover the upcoming Mercedes-Benz election, as well. Do breath easy, as we have our weather- eye keenly fixed on the horizon, here. And we see. . . change. . . is coming. Onward.

नमस्ते

Canadian Approval For Certain Gastric Cancers, For Merck's Keytruda®: Good News

Again, not likely material to overall Merck financials, by itself -- but it continues the good news, out of Rahway.

Based on favorable results from KEYNOTE-859, the maker of pembrolizumab announced that it has cleared Health Canada for certain gastric cancers -- a high burden disease worldwide:

. . .First approved in Canada in 2015, Keytruda holds indications across various disease areas including advanced renal cell carcinoma, bladder cancer, and non-small cell lung carcinoma, among others.

Merck Canada Oncology Business Unit executive director and vice-president André Galarneau said: “We are proud of the recent expansion of Keytruda’s indications in gastric cancers, which often go undetected until an advanced stage, at which point patients face a poor prognosis.

“This milestone underscores our commitment to helping improve the lives of patients by offering treatment options that can lead to better health outcomes. . . .”

Now you know -- be excellent to one another. . . on a beautiful Spring morning here!

नमस्ते

Tangent: Bitcoin Mining Transaction Fees -- Which Spiked Momentarily -- Are Now BELOW The Pre-Halvening Levels... Hilarious -- Market Discipline.

The largely silly claim -- last week -- in crypto-booster papers, was that the debut of Runes, inscribed onto the blocks of mined Bitcoin would drive a vast increase in fees paid to miners. And true enough, the actual 480,000 block miner was paid about $2.6 million, in fees overall -- but that was for the novelty of writing things onto that "Halvening" block.

Almost immediately, fees began falling over the weekend. They are now at under a third of where they were, at peak and slightly below the pre-halvening Levels.

In sum, the $80 or so per block in fees will never cover the fact that miners now face about four times more "squeezing" via the doubling in needed added capital for faster and more rigs, to the fact that the mining results in only half as many coins, as a reward, per block solved.

There is almost no chance Riot will be profitable -- unless Bitcoin stays above about $160,000 for a full year, now.

Fairly valued, this is a sub-$3 stock, though it is trading near $10 this morning.

Onward -- into the Spring sunshine of Earth Day 2024! Be excellent to one another!

नमस्ते

Tomorrow, It Will Have Been 54 Loops Around The Sun, Since The Very First "Earth Day"...

So on the eve of it, we will now re-run the one we posted -- at a half century on.

. . .It has been [a half century] since that first Earth Day in New York City -- and Philly, New Orleans. . . and Boulder. It certainly doesn't seem a half-century ago -- but it now is.

To be sure, the work attached to the movement has never been more vital -- more urgent. We all share this fragile orb — and we are all responsible for how we pass it on, to our children, and theirs. So join with the kiddos. . . here:

. . . .Earth Day was a unified response to an environment in crisis — oil spills, smog, rivers so polluted they literally caught fire.

On April 22, 1970, 20 million Americans — 10% of the U.S. population at the time — took to the streets, college campuses and hundreds of cities to protest environmental ignorance and demand a new way forward for our planet.

The first Earth Day is credited with launching the modern environmental movement, and is now recognized as the planet’s largest civic event. . . .

Now you know. Do something, even from home -- to move the agenda forward, in your sphere of influence. Please. It will help our fragile, beautiful blue sphere, immeasurably.



नमस्ते

And... What Texas Gets Wrong -- About Two Supremes' Cases, Decided This Past Week...

Last week, the Supremes decided two cases. . . in wildly different circumstances (veterans' benefits, for example) that have literally nothing to do with Texas's open violation of the federal immigration schemes (of a half-century's standing, now).

But that "super genius" Ken Paxton (MAGA TX AG) told the Fifth Circuit on Thursday, that these two cases mean. . . Texas should win in the SB-4 / Razor Wire Barrier cases.

That's. . . simply. . . unhinged.

So the ACLU (for the asylees' groups in Texas) said so, thus -- just last night:

. . .Neither of Texas’s supplemental authorities help its case. DeVillier v. Texas declined to decide whether a person may sue under the Takings Clause because it found Texas law provided a cause of action. The decision has no bearing here. DeVillier involved a claim for “just compensation.” 2024 WL 1624576, at *2. The Court explained that such a “damages” remedy “is legal, not equitable,” and so prior Takings Clause cases permitting “equitable claims” for “injunctions” were inapposite. Id. at *3. Here, plaintiffs seek only equitable relief. That makes all the difference. Crown Castle Fiber, L.L.C. v. City of Pasadena, 76 F.4th 425, 434 (5th Cir. 2023) (“But Crown Castle is not asking for damages here. The company seeks declaratory and injunctive relief, bringing the suit in equity.”).

In Labrador v. Poe, the Supreme Court issued a partial stay of an injunction against an Idaho law. There is no opinion for the Court, only a summary order. See 2024 WL 1625724, at *12 (Kavanaugh, J., concurring). And the Justices’ separate opinions have little relevance here. Poe involved a statewide injunction based on harm to two individual children. Id. at *2 (Gorsuch, J., concurring). The crux of the dispute was whether the need to protect those individuals’ anonymity warranted statewide relief. See id. at *13 (Jackson, J., dissenting) (explaining this “fact-specific reason” for affording statewide relief); id. at *4 n.2 (Gorsuch, J., concurring) (suggesting the district court should have considered “the adequacy of less intrusive” relief to address anonymity concerns). Here, unlike in Poe, the United States is a plaintiff harmed by every application of S.B. 4.

And, even apart from that, Texas (suggesting the district court should have considered “the adequacy of less intrusive” relief to address anonymity concerns). Here, unlike in Poe, the United States is a plaintiff harmed by every application of S.B. 4. And, even apart from that, Texas has never even tried to explain how something less than a statewide injunction would provide complete relief for the Las Americas plaintiffs -- two organizations and a municipality harmed by the systemic application of S.B. 4....

In any case, Texas waived any argument on appeal for plaintiff-specific relief by failing to brief it. See Lozovyy v. Kurtz, 813 F.3d 576, 580 n.2 (5th Cir. 2015) (“because this argument was not raised in Lozovyy’s initial brief, it is waived”). . . .

For the record, here is the feds' version of the same argument. It is every bit as persuasive, and makes much the same point: AG Paxton. . . cannot read, for comprehension. [Where did AG Paxton get his law degree? DeVry? DAMNATION.]

Actually, it was Virginia -- but that fine University should rescind his degree, on these papers alone.

Out.

नमस्ते

The Case On The Preposterous "Arrest On Sight" SB-4 Law In Texas... Will Be Mothballed, At Trial Court Level, Until Fifth Cir. (And Supremes) Rule...

Just a smallish matter, since one or more of the upper courts will almost certainly agree (as they did in 2013, as to Arizona's version) that Texas SB-4 is an unconstitutional attempt by Texas to usurp federal "field preempted" law.

In any event, the Texas law remains enjoined, nationwide during the appeals. So, it matters little. Here's that smallish note, in an overnight filing in West Texas:

. . .Currently, the grant of a preliminary injunction by this Court has been appealed, with proceedings currently ongoing in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit. ECF No. 49. The Fifth Circuit’s (and, possibly, the Supreme Court’s) review of the preliminary injunction order is likely to substantially affect subsequent proceedings in this litigation. Accordingly, staying all proceedings in these consolidated cases in this Court will conserve the parties’ and the Court’s resources. . . .

Now you know -- onward, grinning, still -- about the UAW win.

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UPDATE: The UAW Will Bargain For The ~4,300 Workers, At The Tenn. Volkswagen USA Plant -- In Chattanooga!

The Detroit Free Press has called it -- VW lost the vote in Chattanooga.

Yep. VW is unionized, in Tennessee. This is. . . exceedingly good news. And an "idea, whose time has come. . . ." AGAIN.

The lesson? Multinational companies may only treat workers as disposable for so long. Then, the tide changes. It has changed tonight, in America -- not just for this year, and this plant -- but for workers, everywhere, and perhaps for decades yet to come. From NPR, then -- a bit, from earlier tonight:

. . .Some 4,300 hourly workers were eligible to vote this week. The union needs a simple majority of votes cast to win the election. Just about 20 minutes into the counting, the UAW had received 73% of the first 1,000 votes. . . .

All eyes are on the vote, especially because previous attempts by the UAW to unionize the same Chattanooga plant in 2014 and 2019 ended in defeat. Similar efforts at several other auto manufacturing plants in the South have also failed over the years. . . .

[And from the Detroit Free Press:] “By having Ford, GM and Stellantis, after the ratification of the new contracts, immediately go to their stockholders and say, ‘It’s no big deal, we can still be very profitable,’ meant Chattanooga workers didn’t have to listen to the Republican governors who said that a union will shut them down," Wheaton said. "Ford, GM and Stellantis showed that (a rich contract) does not dramatically damage their bottom line and they can still afford to give stock buybacks, give their CEOs big pay checks, and now the workers can afford to buy groceries. . . .”

Onward, grinning ear to ear. Be excellent to one another!



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A Guess At Q1 2024 Earnings, For Merck -- Next Week: Should Be Strong...

This event next week. . . is unlikely to make a big wave in Merck's NYSE stock price, because the dynamics of pembrolizumab's ever rising revenue penetration are pretty well understood, on Wall Street. So -- in the main, the open variables reside in the op. expense / M&A / cap ex. lines (all controllable by the executive team, quarter to quarter). And even as to those smaller ones that are not, Merck's executives have spent about 75 years fine-tuning quarter to quarter levers, to pull should a wrinkle arise.

So, again -- next Thursday morning is barely likely to be news, at all. And you may bet it will not be a train-wreck (though THAT would be. . . news).

Here's at least one analyst's view -- and I'd expect Rahway to meet, and perhaps slightly exceed. . . these figures:

. . .Merck & Co., Inc. will announce its Q1 2024 earnings next Thursday, April 25. Analysts' consensus opinion is that earnings per share will be about $1.99 on a normalized basis, or $1.87 on a GAAP basis, on revenues of ~$15.2 billion. . . .

Big pharma is generally regarded as a strong sector for investment, with most companies driving wide profit margins -- my calculated average net profit margin of the world's 15 biggest pharma companies is 19% -- paying handsome dividends -- my calculated average dividend yield is ~3.1% -- and delivering solid, S&P-beating share price / trading returns. . . .

Onward -- to a wonderful Spring weekend! Be excellent to one another. . . .

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A Slow Motion... Heart-Break? Seems Likely -- Courtesy Of Our Keen Anon. Commenter! Of Pluto And The Surprising Findings From Nine Years Ago...

I'll have more later, but I wanted to get this one right out (in case union labor law isn't doing it for you, this noon-time!).

There's a very elegant, graceful explanation for how Pluto came to show a vast heart shape -- on its lower surface (as imaged in New Horizon's flyby of 2015). Get this:

. . .Now, researchers believe they've uncovered the origin of this cosmic Valentine. The heart, they report today (April 15) in the journal Nature Astronomy, was formed in a slow-motion, glancing collision with an icy rock wider than [Tennessee] is long.

The researchers determined this scenario by using computer models to simulate the impacts on Pluto's surface and the resulting formations. Pluto's heart, scientifically known as Tombaugh Regio, gets its light coloration from nitrogen ice. Impacts between icy bodies in the far reaches of the solar system aren't like those closer to the sun, said study co-author Erik Asphaug, a professor at the University of Arizona's Lunar and Planetary Laboratory. . . .

Led by Martin Jutzi, a senior researcher at the University of Bern in Switzerland, the team used a simulation method called smoothed particle hydrodynamics to test various angles of collision and sizes of impactors to learn which dynamics would lead to the formation of Sputnik Planitia, the western portion of Pluto's heart. This roughly 800-square-mile (2,000 square kilometers) region sits about 2.5 miles (4 km) lower than its surroundings. . . .

The icy rock that hit Pluto was probably around 454 miles (730 km) in diameter, the study authors said. Because of Pluto's icy core, the impact did not melt and liquefy portions of the planet as might happen in an impact in warmer climes, allowing the impacting body to sink into the planet's core.

Instead, the impactor likely flattened on Pluto's surface. Even now, it may sit just under the smooth nitrogen ice that covers Sputnik Planitia. . . .

We covered it, back then -- mostly whimsically -- but now we know the planetary science origins of such a strikingly beautiful feature: A long-lived, subtle heart-ache -- from a slow motion collision that long ago went. . . awry. Poetic, indeed.

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