Sunday, April 24, 2022

So... Could There Be A Deal? Sure. Is It Likely? Not Yet -- And Not At This Price... That's Condor's Take.


It took Larry Ellison (also a mercurial tech multi-billionaire, with an outsized ego) over 18 months to get the PeopleSoft board to waive the company's pill -- and agree to a friendly deal.

In the process, the bid went from $16.40/share. . . to over $26/share.

There is every reason to believe that the Twitter board knows all of that history. And they know that the $26 final figure was about 30% over PeopleSoft's 52 week prior high price.

By comparison, Twitter's 52 week high price (prior to Musk's violations of the SEC 13D rules in amassing his stake) was. . . around $72 a share. Even so, Twitter probably isn't worth 50% more than $72. It Is probably worth around $90-$95 a share. . . due to the engagement and influence it offers over mainstream US thought -- and to some extent, global thought.

But the WSJ is out on Sunday afternoon, with a rumor piece that lawyers for Musk are meeting with lawyers for Twitter. I for one, will be duly skeptical, that any "instant-deal" announcement is coming tomorrow or Tuesday. Unless, of course, the price on such a friendly deal approached $95. Here's the latest rumor piece, from the WSJ, for what it is worth (subs. req. $$$):

. . .Twitter Inc. is re-examining Elon Musk’s $43 billion takeover offer after the billionaire lined up financing for the bid, in a sign the social-media company could be more receptive to a deal.

Twitter had been expected to rebuff the offer, which Mr. Musk made earlier this month without saying how he would pay for it. But after he disclosed last week that he now has $46.5 billion in financing, Twitter is taking a fresh look at the offer and is more likely than before to seek to negotiate, people familiar with the matter said. The situation is fast-moving and it is still far from guaranteed Twitter will do so. . . .


We shall. . . as ever, see. Me? My focus will be on. . . Staten Island No. 2 -- for the early part of the week. Smile. . . .

नमस्ते

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