Late In The 23rd Century, Bennu COULD Pose A Collision Hazard, To The Earth -- Far, Far From Certain, Though...

To be certain, we will all be long dead -- our great grandchildren too, will be long dead. . . but there is a small chance that Bennu, through a combination of day-side / night-side heat exchange accelerations, while spinning. . . will have perturbed its orbit just enough to put us in harm's way. . . on its third next close approach -- late in the 23^rd Century.

. . .On September 25, 2135, an asteroid called Bennu will make a close flyby of Earth. Our planet’s gravity will tweak Bennu’s path, making it a challenge to calculate its future trajectory. During the flyby, there is an extremely small chance that Bennu will pass through a “gravitational keyhole” – a region of space that would set it on just the right path to impact Earth, late in the 22nd century. Although it is difficult to determine the odds of this actually happening, new data from NASA’s OSIRIS-REx spacecraft have allowed scientists to better model how Bennu’s orbit will evolve over time, and to better calculate the probability of an impact. . . .

Using NASA’s Deep Space Network and state-of-the-art computer models, scientists were able to significantly shrink uncertainties in Bennu’s orbit, determining its total impact probability through the year 2300 is about 1 in 1,750 (or 0.057%). The researchers were also able to identify Sept. 24, 2182, as the most significant single date in terms of a potential impact, with an impact probability of 1 in 2,700 (or about 0.037%).

Although the chances of it hitting Earth are very low, Bennu remains one of the two most hazardous known asteroids in our solar system, along with another asteroid called 1950 DA. . . .

Of course, between now and that first next pass, we will learn much more -- and greatly improve our precision -- in calculating Bennu's exact path. And we will all but certainly have options, to nudge it just enough (if need be, by then) toward an entirely harmless path. . . perhaps even re-routing it into a solar intercept orbit, for example. Here's the explainer:



As ever -- we will bank on science being able to help us all (or in this case, help our distant descendants) avoid a calamity. Onward, with a confident smile, now. . . as healing is underway -- on sports injuries / surgery. . . .



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