In truth, nothing much will change before late 2020, if then. If Boris does mollify the Brexiteers' wilder demands, the EU trading bloc will be able to deftly impose its will, on Boris. And if he does bow to the crazies at home, the EU trade ministers will simply hammer the UK with ruinous tariffs. Either way, Boris is likely to lose -- but in one scenario, he takes all of the UK down with him, unless Northern Ireland and Scotland decide to... remain. Then he only ruins... Merry Old England. Here's a bit:
. . . .Over the next year, negotiators are somehow supposed to hammer out a major trade deal, as well as agreements about how Britain and Europe cooperate on security, foreign policy and a range of other issues. Virtually no one on the European side believes it possible to agree to a meaningful trade deal that fast — meaning either that Johnson will have to break a campaign promise by asking to extend the transition, or that Britain and the E.U. could wind up with the same type of sudden break at the end of 2020 that Parliament until now refused to allow. . . .
Brussels is delighted to say adieu to what it regards as obstructionist rabble. . . .
My long-standing predictions therefore still hold -- nothing before 2021 -- and most likely more delay after that. Nope. No hard Brexit, not until trade talks are complete -- and mutual military defense is secured. [That is a mess that Trump injected to all of this, by criticizing NATO. As irony would have it, over the last two years, Trump made Johnson's job well-nigh. . . impossible, now. Hilarious.]
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