UPDATED: Monday morning (12.10.2018) -- As we suspected, it seems increasingly possible -- if not (yet!) probable. . . that a British exit may not occur. . . at all. The vote in Parliament is postponed, and an EU court rules Britain may (effectively) say "just kidding -- my bad!". . . and remain in the EU without additional paperwork/proceedings. Fascinating. Do see this hilarious YouTube, from the bloke who voiced Gollum’s CGI character — TLoTR reference! — on it all.
[End, updated portion.]
Over two and a half years ago; and about two years ago, one and a half years ago, and one year ago. . . and six months ago (and, I'm fairly certain I'm missing at least three more, in that listing -- but this may be the best of them) -- I offered my opinions on the slow roll that is Britain's exit from the EU.
The upshot, of all of the above (and the later developing ones) -- no matter how Tuesday's vote turns out, in Parliament -- is that things will be slower, and messier -- and stretch into 2020 now. The markets simply need more clarity, and certainty -- and the way this all (a likely faux engineered populist vote to exit) has played out, it has roiled the markets. . . with the opposite. It would not shock me to see it never happen now. Here's a good "state of the play" article from the BBC, and a bit:
. . . .The PM has warned Tory rebels it could lead to a general election, and there was a "very real risk of no Brexit". . . . Boris Johnson said the PM could stay on if she lost but must renegotiate the deal with Brussels. . . . The withdrawal deal negotiated between the UK and EU has been endorsed by EU leaders but must also be backed by Parliament if it is to come into force. . . .
The [Northern Ireland "backstop" border issue] should instead be covered in negotiations over a future trading relationship with Europe, he said, and the UK should "incentivise" the EU by withholding "at least half" of the UK's agreed £39bn "divorce" payment, until a free trade is signed at the end of 2020. . . .
All of this (to my experienced eye), suggests that it may well be the smartest course for US multinationals to take no additional restructuring actions -- at least until 2020 arrives. Onward -- and stay sheltered in place, and safe from the ice and snow, down below -- one and all. Here, we are seeing frigid but sunny weather. Time for some heavy weights, and then a big brunch -- onward, smiling. . . .
नमस्ते
2 comments:
interesting. your take?
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/10/politics/supreme-court-planned-parenthood-abortion/index.html
I have at least two observations: Kavanaugh surprises here, largely because he understands decisions to cut off federal funding ought not be based on religious grounds. [I admit to being pleasantly surprised by his failure to fall in line with the travelers Thomas, Gorsuch and Alito.]
Second, I think Roberts is increasingly alarmed by the Trump appointees trampling of long settled law.
And we know from his public rebuke (almost unheard of in the modern era), of Trump... he feels 45 thinks the judiciary is a simple political pawn.
Look for Roberts to slap Trump in the asylum case, when it reaches the Supremes.
Fascinating stuff!
Namaste. . . .
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