Thursday, December 21, 2017

Ahem. Maybe I Wasn't Quite So "Wrong..."


As an update on the possibly soon to be vaporized tax package -- it seems the current incarnation of the GOP (and Mr. Trump, in particular) will have to admit that the tax package, even with its sunset dates -- adds egregiously to the national deficit. In doing so, it puts the nutty "Freedom Caucus" of the GOP in a potentially out-sized bargaining position -- on all matters -- next year. The GOP is unlikely to get a waiver from Democrats on the so called Reagan-era "PayGo" weaponized piece of budget cutting law.

That in turn means 45 will likely wait until after New Years to sign the package, in order to have the required drastic budget cuts not occur until January 2019 -- after midterms. But, once he makes that devil's bargain, he is stuck with the Freedom Caucus wing of his own party having the ability to dictate all sorts of positions to him. That is, unless he makes a deal with Democrats to save Obamacare. And nothing short of that will move the Democrats to give him a total of 60 votes in the Senate, to avoid PayGo blowing up the GOP's talking points -- and chances -- going into 2018 mid-terms.

Here's a highly-simplified explanation, from CBS:

. . . .The arcane budget law is called Paygo, or pay-as-you-go.

Decades ago, the then GOP-controlled Congress approved the law imposing steep automatic spending cuts whenever Congress passes legislation that adds to the nation's growing debt. But the automatic spending cuts, which have been around since Ronald Reagan was president, have often been waived, by votes of Congress.

Republicans want to add a provision to a year-end spending bill that would waive the Paygo law again this year, but they need help from Democrats to do it. . . .


They won't get it. And they shouldn't -- not without a "save" for Obamacare.

Moreover, I shouldn't be surprised -- but I regularly am -- by how little Mr. Trump cares to learn, about the actual mechanics of governing. This tax package may yet fall apart, with 45 blaming the "unfair" PayGo law -- and the Democrats.

But the truth of it will be that his own Freedom Caucus, and his own Demi-God, Saint Reagan, will have done him in. To say otherwise, would taste a lie. . . That, and his refusal/inability to read the actual fine print, on budget laws, as they existed when he took office. In a [Trumpian] word. . . Sad!

Onward.

नमस्ते

1 comment:

condor said...

Throughout the night, and early morning — but once here at 3:46 am… smile.