Still Cause For Concern: Now Over 1,100 Mpox Deaths -- In Africa -- This Time 'Round...

Adolescents are now approved to be vaccinated, on an emergency basis -- as more and more palletized shipments of the highly-effective vaccine arrive in airports, across the continent. But again, the challenge is getting them to where the afflicted patients' contacts live -- in often remote, mountainous, difficult terrain.

Still the rate of expansion is now moderating -- and there is every reason to believe the ring vaccinations are working -- just as they have in prior Ebola flare ups. Here's the latest, from ABC.com:

. . .KAMPALA, Uganda -- The number of mpox -related deaths in Africa has surpassed 1,000, the head of the continent’s top public health agency said Thursday, warning of the continuing threat of cross-border contamination and a lack of rapid test kits.

There were 50 mpox-related deaths in the past week, bringing the total to 1,100, indicating that authorities face a challenge in stemming outbreaks currently affecting 18 of the continent's 55 nations, said Jean Kaseya, director general of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“We are still fighting with this outbreak,” Kaseya said. “We don’t want to see all African countries affected. . . .”

Now you know. Be excellent to one another -- always. Onward.

नमस्ते

We May Be In Highly-Active Solar Flare Storms -- Through Mid-2025: Experts From NCAR, NASA And NOAA Say...

As we mentioned last week, NASA yesterday hosted a teleconference with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the international Solar Cycle Prediction Panel at which the various experts opined that our Sol has reached "solar maximum". Even so, the experts' consensus is that the strong geo-magnetic storms we see from it. . . could continue -- into mid 2025.

The Sun goes through an approximately 11 year cycle, transitioning between low and high magnetic activity. Thus, about every 11 years, at the height of the solar cycle, the Sun’s magnetic poles flip -- here on Earth, that would be like the North and South poles swapping places every decade -- and the Sun transitions from being calm to a very active and explosive mode.

Here is the full NASA run-down -- on the press conference -- but we should expect a few more events like that of October 3-4 (which reached Earth around October 10-11), yet in this cycle:

“. . .This announcement doesn’t mean that this is the peak of solar activity we’ll see this solar cycle,” said Elsayed Talaat, director of space weather operations at NOAA. “While the Sun has reached the solar maximum period, the month that solar activity peaks on the Sun will not be identified for months or years.”

Scientists will not be able to determine the exact peak of this solar maximum period for many months because it’s only identifiable after they’ve tracked a consistent decline in solar activity after that peak. However, scientists have identified that the last two years on the Sun have been part of this active phase of the solar cycle, due to the consistently high number of sunspots during this period. Scientists anticipate that the maximum phase will last another year or so before the Sun enters the declining phase, which leads back to solar minimum. Since 1989, the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel -- an international panel of experts sponsored by NASA and NOAA -- has worked together to make their prediction for the next solar cycle. . . .

“Solar Cycle 25 sunspot activity has slightly exceeded expectations,” said Lisa Upton, co-chair of the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel and lead scientist at Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas. “However, despite seeing a few large storms, they aren’t larger than what we might expect during the maximum phase of the cycle.”

The most powerful flare of the solar cycle so far was an X9.0 on Oct. 3 (X-class denotes the most intense flares, while the number provides more information about its strength).

NOAA anticipates additional solar and geomagnetic storms during the current solar maximum period, leading to opportunities to spot auroras over the next several months, as well as potential technology impacts. Additionally, though less frequent, scientists often see fairly significant storms during the declining phase of the solar cycle. . . .

[And as we've mentioned before, essentially all Suns are born as pairs, with one either being flung off, or consumed in the first million or so years of their joint lives. That's my second, slightly poetic-licensed. . . graphic's teaching.]

Now you know -- and. . . do go cheer for the Buffs Saturday, all you NOAA and NCAR Boulder based fans!

नमस्ते

A First Ever Clinical Trial -- For A Therapeutic, For Marburg's -- In Rwanda, Using Gilead's Remdesivir (The Covid Therapeutic)... Now Underway.

As with Mpox, it is increasingly looking like the rate of new cases is. . . trending in the right direction -- toward zero.

As ever though, with no approved anti-virals for the specific Marburg outbreak, we have lots of work to do, yet. To that end, Gilead is testing its highly effective COVID treatment (not a vaccine) called Remdesivir, in Rwanda now. There is significant reason to think that it will work -- using much the same mechanisms of action -- as the ones that largely successfully bested viral loads, in COVID-19. Here's that latest news:

. . .Rwanda has begun the world's first clinical trial for a treatment of the Ebola-like Marburg virus, which has killed more than a dozen people in the country, the World Health Organization said Tuesday. . . .

"Encouraging news from Rwanda," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on X.

He hailed that the country had launched the "world's first clinical trial for Marburg virus disease", in collaboration with his agency, involving the use of a drug used to treat COVID-19.

The Marburg outbreak was first announced in Rwanda in late September and a vaccination program using a trial vaccine was launched earlier this month. . . .

Marburg is transmitted to humans from fruit bats, and is part of the so-called filovirus family that includes Ebola. With a fatality rate of up to 88 percent, Marburg's highly infectious hemorrhagic fever is often accompanied by bleeding and organ failure.

There are currently no officially approved vaccines nor approved antiviral treatments, but potential treatments, including blood products, immune and drug therapies are being evaluated. . . .

Now you know -- and do let football gods find the Buffs to be ready, when tested in Arizona -- at 3 pm local, this Saturday. Smile. . . .

नमस्ते

Good News! An Added €20 Million -- For Mpox Relief, In Africa -- From The European Commission For International Partnerships...

The situation in the seven or so nations inside Africa affected by this 2024 Mpox outbreak is improving -- now that vaccines are being administered in ring fashion, to be sure. And this outbreak is not nearly as lethal as the current Marburg's virus outbreak is, nor as any ebola flare up. But still, it afflicts primarily the very young, and runs at an about 10% mortality rate, now. So it is an urgent concern.

The prevailing thought among health care practitioners is that older people (age 30 and above, in Africa) likely acquired some mpox immunity, by virtue of being vaccinated against smallpox, decades ago. The youngest (under age 10) in Africa remain largely unvaccinated, and are thus more susceptible to Mpox. Or so the common wisdom holds. In any event, here's the latest good news, from the EU Commissioner for International Partnerships:

. . .Jutta Urpilainen, European Commissioner for International Partnerships, has announced an additional €20 million funding towards the fight against Mpox outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). This additional funding contributes to the DRC’s Mpox response and supports preparedness against epidemics as part of the EU’s objective to support the strengthening of health systems in Africa. Commissioner Urpilainen discussed the new announcement and coordination needed to tackle Mpox outbreaks with Director-General of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC), H.E. Dr. Jean Kaseya. . . .

The additional funding for the DRC complements the 215,000 doses of mpox vaccines donated by HERA to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) to address the current crisis across the African continent as well as the 365,000 doses of mpox vaccine donated by Team Europe.

“We are committed to tackle health crises and increase resilience together with the African partners. This is a joint mission to improve global health security. The additional funding of €20 million comes on to previous support and vaccine donations by the EU and its Member States.” -- Jutta Urpilainen, EU Commissioner for International Partnerships

The funding announced today is part of a coordinated response by the EU towards strengthening the preparedness and response capacities for both current and future health emergencies in affected countries. Team Europe is a lead investor in global health initiatives such as the Pandemic Fund which is fast-tracking funds for enhanced laboratory capacity, surveillance and detection of the virus, and the training of emergency workforce for vaccinations.

The new funds will contribute to tackling both the current and future health emergencies in a coordinated intervention with partners such as the WHO and affected countries. . . .

This is clearly a welcome step -- but in Africa, both on Marburg and Mpox -- and public health generally (with prophylactic vaccine programs running decades years behind). . . much more work is needed. And much more funding, obviously.

[And equally obviously, the frothy hard right has nothing useful, or even interesting to say any longer. . . with Tangerine spending about 40 minutes. . . staring vacantly into space at his "town hall", and bobbing his head -- while classical arias blare at high-volume. The ancient rebrobate / coot has. . . completely lost it.]

And as the masthead now reflects, Travis Hunter's shoulder will be good to go for Saturday, down in Tuscon. Amazingly, the Vegas line had the Buffs as 4.5 point underdogs, when it seemed Travis would not be available for this Saturday, due to injury protocols. Overnight, on the news that he will start -- on offense and defense -- the line now has narrowed by three points -- CU is only a 1.5 point underdog! Woot! Onward.

नमस्ते

Onward, To... Europa -- And A 2030 Series Of Sails, Around Lord Jupiter.

At right is the "writ in water" multi-languages sound of the word for water tile, affixed to the body of the Clipper. Smile.

What a long, and commanded journey this will be: out to Mars, for a slingshot gravity assist, then back in a very close pass -- to whip around Earth -- for another gravity assist. . . then on to Europa, circa 2030. Here's the NASA update, on it all:

. . .The largest spacecraft NASA ever built for a mission headed to another planet, Europa Clipper also is the first NASA mission dedicated to studying an ocean world beyond Earth. The spacecraft will travel 1.8 billion miles (2.9 billion kilometers) on a trajectory that will leverage the power of gravity assists, first to Mars in four months and then back to Earth for another gravity assist flyby in 2026. After it begins orbiting Jupiter in April 2030, the spacecraft will fly past Europa 49 times.

“Congratulations to our Europa Clipper team for beginning the first journey to an ocean world beyond Earth,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. “NASA leads the world in exploration and discovery, and the Europa Clipper mission is no different. By exploring the unknown, Europa Clipper will help us better understand whether there is the potential for life not just within our solar system, but among the billions of moons and planets beyond our Sun.”

Approximately five minutes after liftoff, the rocket’s second stage fired up and the payload fairing, or the rocket’s nose cone, opened to reveal Europa Clipper. About an hour after launch, the spacecraft separated from the rocket. Ground controllers received a signal soon after, and two-way communication was established at 1:13 p.m. with NASA’s Deep Space Network facility in Canberra, Australia. Mission teams celebrated as initial telemetry reports showed Europa Clipper is in good health and operating as expected. . . .

Now you know -- and onward, as we have dusty snowflakes here, and some small hailstones (windchills of 35 degrees, already!) as I head over to get some taco-truck deliciousness. Heh. Nuthin' gets in the way of that gravity-assisted. . . slingshot!

नमस्ते

[U] Take A Look -- After [More Than] Ten Years... Still A Train-Wreck; All The Same Tired Old Schemes.

We will be are now back, to explain, but see this 2013 backgrounder.

We were put in mind of this, because a long time reader was checking up on our older (2012-2014) predictions, as to specific stock bets, long and short, in the life sciences vertical.

This one in particular was pretty obvious to anyone who is versed in. . . the math of finance. Add to it, that the successive crews of management, and board seats. . . were mostly known for over-levering assets, in order to pay out what amounted to wasting dividends to private equity investors, and then often filing a chapter if all the rosy predictions didn't turn out as planned. [And that is almost exactly what happened to Valeant -- as it became Bausch Health.]

Here in 2024, nearly a full decade later, a renewed team is going to split the biz into a revamped B+L brand, and leave the lower margin businesses (in a remain-co, called "Health"). . . to likely whither and die. You could look at the symbol "BHC" and read all the 2024 coverage on it. Or. . . you could just re-read anything I ever wrote here, about Brent Saunders and / or Fast Fred Hassan.

Same old; same old. Here's the chart, for the record -- now, more than a decade's worth of "paths, diverging in the wood":

. . .[T]he [Bausch Health company has endured a] shocking decline over three years. Indeed, the share price is down a whopping 72% in the last three years. So we're relieved for long term holders to see a bit of uplift. The thing to think about is whether the business has really turned around.

Since Bausch Health Companies has shed US $136m from its value in the past 7 days, let's see if the longer term decline has been driven by the business' economics. . . .

[Confidential Hint Dept.: it hasn't (as to the first) and it has been, as to the second. Cheers!] Onward.

नमस्ते

It Remains Immaterial To Rahway, But A Nice Validation For Exelixis's Zanzalintinib Candidate -- In Head and Neck, and Renal Cell Carcinomas...

We had previously-mentioned Merck's December 2023 FDA approval for Welireg^®, in renal cell carcinoma patients.

Now, Welireg will be tried in combination with Exelixis's Zanzalintinib candidate (in what amounts to a "supply agreement on steroids", for Merck). The same sort of enhanced supply arrangement will obtain with Merck's Keytruda^® -- which will be studied by Exelixis, in head and neck cancers with Zanzalintinib -- for added progression free survival / efficacy. Here's all of that good news, this afternoon:

. . .Exelixis and Merck announced that the companies have entered into a clinical development collaboration to evaluate the combination of Exelixis’ investigational tyrosine kinase inhibitor, or TKI, zanzalintinib with Merck’s anti-PD-1 therapy Keytruda in a phase 3 pivotal trial for the treatment of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, or HNSCC, and zanzalintinib with Welireg, Merck’s oral hypoxia-inducible factor-2 alpha inhibitor, in a phase 1/2 trial and two phase 3 pivotal trials for the treatment of patients with renal cell carcinoma, or RCC.

Under the terms of the collaboration, Merck will supply Keytruda for the ongoing, Exelixis-sponsored phase 3 STELLAR-305 pivotal trial in previously untreated PD-L1 positive recurrent or metastatic HNSCC. In addition, Merck will sponsor a phase 1/2 trial and two phase 3 pivotal trials in RCC.

Merck will fund one of these phase 3 studies, and Exelixis will co-fund the phase 1/2 trial and the other phase 3 study, as well as supply zanzalintinib and cabozantinib. Exelixis maintains all global commercial and marketing rights to zanzalintinib. . . .

Now you know -- be excellent to one another. Onward. Ever, onward. . . toward Europa by the decade's end. Smile.

नमस्ते

Tangerine-Fed Insanity: Over The Weekend, FEMA Workers In Rural North Carolina Received Threats From Armed "Militiamen". Damn.

There can be no doubt: this chaos is by design -- it is exactly what Tangerine intends, by making completely false threats against hard working federal employees. He (insanely) believes that the more (he pretends) that the world is burning. . . the greater the chance he can slip in, as a purported. . . strong man.

This is. . . simply disgusting. We must vote him down, in a landslide -- in a little over three weeks now.

Here's the latest:

. . .On Saturday, FEMA workers had to halt their work in Rutherford County due to reports National Guard troops saw “armed militia” threatening the workers, CNN affiliate WBTV confirmed after reviewing messages sent to employees of a FEMA contractor. The threats were first reported by the Washington Post. . . .

Some FEMA operations were also paused Sunday in Ashe County, near the borders of Tennessee and Virginia, out of an abundance of caution, Sheriff B. Phil Howell said on Facebook. This included in-person applications for aid in at least two locations “due to threats occurring in some counties,” according to the county’s emergency management office. Those locations reopened Monday, the sheriff and emergency management office announced.

Howell urged residents to “stay calm and steady during our recovery, help folks and please don’t stir the pot. . . .”

Good advice, indeed -- will the Tangerine dotard heed it? Don't hold your breath. Out.

नमस्ते

[U] "The IV Supplier To The World" Expects To Fully Recover From Helene By Year End 2024...

And in the mean time, competitor B.Braun in Florida has reported that Milton didn't do as serious damage as was feared, so it reopened IV manufacturing as of this past Friday.

Even so, it will be months yet that US clinics and hospitals are on "supply / order limits" -- to stave off stock-outs. And source plants in the EU, Canada and even China will fly in pallets of bags to shortage-hit areas, under emergency FDA authorizations. Here's that story from last week, mostly -- at NPR:

. . .Flooding from Hurricane Helene in late September shut down the largest suppliers of IV fluids in the U.S, a factory in Marion, N.C., about 35 miles outside of Asheville. Owned by Baxter International, the plant made products like saline, sterile water for injection and other fluids that are crucial to the health care system.

Now, the company and government officials are trying to make sure existing shortages aren’t worsened by the natural disasters. . . .

[T]he Food and Drug Administration announced it has authorized 19 IV products for temporary importation from Canada, China, Ireland and the U.K.

Baxter is limiting how much of its IV fluids customers like hospitals can buy to prevent hoarding and to try to ensure equitable access to the supply that is available. It’s also trying to increase manufacturing at its other facilities to bridge the gap. . . .

Now you know -- and last week, some elective surgeries were being postponed in Dallas for-profit hospitals, due to short supply -- of IV sets. And, the Europa Clipper mission has safely achieved a stable orbit. More prosaically, the Buffs travel to face a tough Arizona team this weekend. . . onward!

नमस्ते

Tangerine's 2020 Campaign Settlement Counsel Will have To Appear -- On November 20 -- To Discuss Damages To Be Paid To Eddy Grant In Manhattan.

Since summary judgment has already been granted -- to the owners of the rights to "Electric Avenue" (which Tangerine stole in his 2020 campaign ads), the discussion will center on how much he must pay for that theft of intellectual property.

Flawless -- and a high ranking officer from the 2020 Campaign (or if dissolved, as he has claimed -- his current one). . . must attend. Here is a bit from the three page order entered at the end of last week:

. . .No later than five (5) business days before the conference, counsel for each party must send the party’s Ex Parte Settlement Letter, marked “Confidential Material for Use Only at Settlement Conference” to [redacted] @nysd.uscourts.gov. This letter should not be sent to the other parties.

The letter should include, at a minimum, the information described in paragraph 3 of the Procedures. The parties should exchange their initial settlement demands and responses in advance of their Ex Parte Settlement Letter submissions.

The parties -- not just the attorneys -- must attend the settlement conference. Corporate parties, labor unions, and insurance companies (or any other party that is not a natural person) must send to the conference the person ultimately responsible for giving settlement authority. The parties have represented that party representatives with full settlement authority to participate. . . .

Now you know -- and Eddy certainly deserves this payday. He absolutely earned it. Onward.

नमस्ते

Update: Mpox Cases Have Now Appeared In Zimbabwe, As Well...

Add another local African nation to the list of Mpox outbreak geographies here in Fall 2024. Zimbabwe now joins Zambia, DRC, Ghana, Central African Republic, and Nigeria -- as nations inside Africa with more than one case.

And so, Zimbabwe faces a public health calamity -- with one case in Harare, the capital -- and one in the southern corner of the country, in Mberengwa. Here's that news, via Reuters:

. . .Zimbabwe has confirmed its first two cases of mpox, the health ministry said on Sunday, without specifying which variant had been recorded.

The first case was detected in an 11-year-old boy who developed symptoms last month after travelling to South Africa, the statement said. The second case was in a 24-year-old man who fell ill after travelling to Tanzania, it said.

Both patients are recovering and contact tracing is underway, the statement said. The cases were in capital Harare and the southern town of Mberengwa. . . .

Now you know. . . and it seems that a man with several fake passports and a few weapons was picked up this afternoon near a Tangerine rally (he's a registered Republican and a podcaster about corruption -- and his vehicle sports a homemade sovereign citizens movement-type plate). Whatever he was doing there. . . this is not the answer, folks. Out.

नमस्ते

Kamala Harris Shows A Strong (And Strengthening!) Trend Line -- As (Excepting Only In FL) Tangerine Is... Fading.

To be sure, the election is very close -- especially as to electoral college votes. But now we are only 22 days away -- and prior experience tells us that it will be unlikely that any major shift will occur in these last hours.

And so, on the popular vote, Kamala is likely to win by a margin of over 10 million votes.

Of course, Tangerine will (as a malign would-be despot) litigate all results in swing states. So we may not have a final (court ordered) winner until late December 2024.

But the outcome is pretty clear: Trump will lose. Here's 538.com's latest:

. . .The difference boils down to one thing: trends, not levels. If you compare Harris’s margin over Trump in polls released Oct. 10 to the results of previous polls by the same pollsters in the same places, Harris’s margin has increased by an average of 0.4 percentage points.

And according to our election model, which looks at differences in results among all pollsters to identify whether a firm leans to the left or the right, the polls from Emerson in particular have tended to underestimate Harris compared to polls with the same methodology (a mix of robocalls and online interviews) in the same geographies.

This means our starting point when looking at these new polls is that Harris is doing better than they indicate, by about a point on vote margin, and that she is either holding steady or gaining ground. . . .

That sure sounds right. . . to me.

So you may safely ignore all of the frothy hard right's belchings.

Out.

नमस्ते

Noon Eastern -- On Monday -- Is Europa Clipper Targeted Launch, Now...

It may run a bit later, but could also very well go off right on time.

Weather is not expected to be a factor; and it seems the idea is to get the launch in ahead of the next tropical depression now forming and headed toward the Florida Atlantic coast. In any event, here's the latest, from Kennedy Launch Center:

. . .NASA will provide live coverage of prelaunch and launch activities for Europa Clipper, the agency’s mission to explore Jupiter’s icy moon Europa. NASA now is targeting launch no earlier than 12:06 p.m. EDT, Monday, Oct. 14, on a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket from Launch Complex 39A at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

Beyond Earth, Jupiter’s moon Europa is considered one of the solar system’s most promising potentially habitable environments. After an approximately 1.8-billion-mile journey, Europa Clipper will enter orbit around Jupiter in April 2030, where the spacecraft will conduct a detailed survey of Europa to determine whether the icy world could have conditions suitable for life. Europa Clipper is the largest spacecraft NASA has ever developed for a planetary mission.

It carries a suite of nine instruments along with a gravity experiment that will investigate an ocean beneath Europa’s surface, which scientists believe contains twice as much liquid water as Earth’s oceans. . . .

Now you know -- with a tough night in Boulder now in the books, and Travis Hunter (with what may be a shoulder separation injury) now perhaps not likely to play for a few weeks. There was also an injury to WR/Returner Jimmy Horn, the fastest player on the team. No report on return dates yet for either. Ugh.

नमस्ते

UPDATE: No One In Close Contact (With Any Marburg Patient) May Leave Rwanda, Now -- For 21 Days Minimum...

This is, in my estimation, a sensible and moderate curtailment of personal liberties -- to keep both Rwandans -- and the wider world. . . safe. If a putative traveler wishes to board a plane or train, s/he must fill out a questionnaire, to determine if they've been in close proximity of a known Marburg case -- and to then be tested. They must be symptom free for 21 days, before travel will be authorized by the Rwandan government authorities.

Of course, people will likely still slip across local interior borders unnoticed, on foot, or by car or scooter, but getting out into the wider world generally (and off-continent, certainly) requires a plane ride -- or a very long train trek -- so health ministers have now imposed a partial travel ban, forbidding anyone who has been exposed to the virus from leaving the country. [At least until they pass a 21 day "no symptoms" waiting period.]

This measured, prudent move seeks to stop the outbreak from spreading beyond its borders. And here is the latest on it all, from the UK's Sun newspaper:

. . .An outbreak of Marburg virus, which is a close cousin to Ebola, was first confirmed in Rwanda at the end of last month.

The country has now imposed a partial travel ban, forbidding anyone who has been exposed to the virus from leaving the country.

The move seeks to stop the outbreak spreading beyond its borders.

People wanting to travel abroad from Rwanda will have complete a questionnaire within 24 hours of their departure to report suspicious symptoms, the Rwandan Ministry of Health said. . . .

Do recall that last week, the US CDC began screening arriving Rwandan passengers for Marburg's. Now you know. . . and separately, in at least five US states, the drug resistant mpox virus has been recorded, in small clusters.

In any event, onward, on a glorious fall weekend morning -- and evening, with Buffs in action at home. Smile.

नमस्ते

Well -- Not Surprising. But Now, Martin Shkreli Will Be Required To Appear And Testify Under Oath, In Brooklyn's Federal Court (Re Wu- Theft) -- On November 5, 2024. Oops!

So -- just as we said, Martin is now in very hot water.

He will be live on the stand, with contempt for perjury, clearly on the table. The able USDC Judge Chen will not tolerate any more shenanigans. And jailing is also a common outcome, in a contempt hearing like this one.

Here's her order, just entered, in full text -- on the docket:

. . .SCHEDULING ORDER:

The Court is in receipt of [38] Defendant's supplemental affidavit and [39] Plaintiff's letter in response. In order to resolve the deficiencies in Defendant Shkreli's affidavits, the Court will hold a hearing on November 5, 2024, at 11:00AM in Courtroom 4F North at which Defendant Shkreli will be called upon to testify under oath regarding the copying and distribution of the Album's tracks. Both parties will be permitted to question Defendant Shkreli on these issues.

Ordered by Judge Pamela K. Chen on 10/11/2024. . . .

Hilarious. The cross-examination is going to be devastating (for Martin's chances of remaining a free man). Maybe he shouldn't have. . . lied -- in sworn statements, in the Wu- matter. Just a thought.

नमस्ते

Now At Least One Mpox Case, In Zambia -- Lukasa. Tough News.

This sort of country to country spread is to be expected, where as here there has been a delay -- in the vaccinations program. Even so, it is discouraging nonetheless -- that we now must now face an outbreak in a new geography.

Here is the latest, from Reuters -- while we await word on the Clade -- II or 1b. . . on this first case. The latter would be the more concerning:

. . .Zambia's health ministry on Thursday reported the country's first case of mpox, without disclosing which variant had been recorded. . . . [Mpox was] detected in a 32-year-old Tanzanian national who arrived in Zambia in early September, before travelling around the southern African country and developing symptoms including muscle aches, fatigue and a sore throat on Oct. 2.

"Given the patient's extensive travel history and interactions at multiple points in Zambia, there is heightened risk of local transmission and potential cross-border spread," the health ministry said in a statement, adding that contact tracing was underway.

The World Health Organization in August declared mpox a global public health emergency for the second time in two years, as a new variant of the viral infection spread from Democratic Republic of Congo to neighbouring African countries.

The new clade 1b strain has caused global concern as it seems to spread more easily though routine close contact. . . .

Onward, and now you know -- he is likely being treated in a rural clinic, and that's presumably to keep him away from the densely populated capital of Lukasa, and its overcrowded hospitals.

नमस्ते

[U: Launch On Monday?] Clipper Mission Is Safe -- But No New Launch Date Yet, Post The Departure Of Hurricane Milton...

UPDATED -- Late on Friday, NASA posted this: ". . .NASA. . . [is] now targeting no earlier than Monday, Oct. 14, for the launch of Europa Clipper. Following Hurricane Milton, teams are continuing to do checkouts to ensure flight readiness. . . ."

End, updated portion.

As we mentioned, the Thursday launch was scrubbed -- due to Milton.

Next launch opportunity is likely mid-next week, but certainly no earlier than this Sunday. See here, for the full NASA update:

. . .Once the winds subsided to a safe level, the center’s Ride Out Team and engineering teams began initial checkouts to ensure bridges are safe and useable. Later, a larger assessment team will thoroughly check the entire center.

The agency’s Europa Clipper launch team will schedule an official launch date when teams from NASA and SpaceX are able to perform their assessments, and confirm it’s safe to launch. Teams are working to protect launch opportunities no earlier than Sunday, Oct. 13. Clipper has launch opportunities through Wednesday, Nov. 6.

NASA will provide more information on Clipper launch opportunities as it becomes available. . . .

Now you know. C'mon, you Buff fans -- show out, tomorrow night! And. . . baby girls here -- rest of the day, Friday. Park time! Woot!

नमस्ते

Noerr-Pennington Doctrine Remains Controlling Law In Merck's Third Circuit US Court of Appeals: Mumps Vaccine Suits, Dismissed.

In general -- under controlling US law and regulations -- there are very few avenues to sue makers of life saving vaccines.

That was a considered Congressional policy decision, over a half century ago -- to encourage the provision of what are very low margin, but vital, vaccines to school children nationwide. [Rahway withdrew this vaccine in 2022 -- but we've been following various versions of this vaccine litigation since early 2010.]

Here is the latest on that piece of ongoing litigation. We will wait to see if the plaintiffs appeal to the Supremes, in the next 90 days.

. . .[Merck has won an appeal, that it is] immune from an antitrust lawsuit accusing it of misleading regulators about the effectiveness of its mumps vaccine in order to ward off competition, a federal appeals court ruled on Monday.

A 2-1 panel of the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals found that Merck is protected by a legal doctrine known as Noerr-Pennington immunity, which states that parties cannot face antitrust claims for petitioning the government even if they are advocating for government action that would reduce competition. . . .

The plaintiffs said that Merck deliberately misled the FDA in order to prevent competition from GSK, violating the federal Sherman Act and state consumer protection laws. U.S. District Judge Chad Kenney in Philadelphia last year granted Merck summary judgment on the state law claims but let the Sherman Act claim go forward, and Merck appealed.

But the majority of the 3rd Circuit panel, reversing Kenney's ruling, found in Monday's non-precedential opinion that Noerr-Pennington immunity held even if Merck's actions were "unethical." "The record contains troubling evidence that Merck sought to extend its apparent monopoly by misrepresenting facts about its mumps vaccines on the FDA-approved drug labeling," Circuit Judge Tamika Montgomery-Reeves wrote for the panel.

"But those allegedly false claims were the result of Merck's genuine and successful petitioning of the FDA. . . ."

Now you know. Do "enjoy" the likely spotty cell coverage today -- but also marvel at the citizen-generated Northern Lights pics. . . rolling in at local weather stations, and web-sites -- all day! [See the new masthead, from my baby sister, high in the Rockies overnight!]

नमस्ते

Right On Cue -- ANOTHER "Solar Max" Flare / Wave, Coursing Past Earth, Tonight And Into Later Tomorrow...

Earlier this week, we mentioned a press briefing -- coming on the 15^th -- as to this current solar max cycle (about half-done) -- and what to expect, from here on. Not to put too fine a point on it. . . but, expect more. . . of this.

And for beleaguered Floridians, this could not come at a worse time. The cell disruptions are expected to be mostly a parallel or so north of Florida, but people in Tennessee, and perhaps even Oxford, Mississippi may see the aurora tonight, if the skies are clear.

Here's the latest, from NPR, NCAR and NOAA:

. . .A severe solar storm is headed to Earth that could stress power grids even more as the U.S. deals with major back-to-back hurricanes, space weather forecasters said Wednesday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a severe geomagnetic storm watch for Thursday into Friday after an outburst from the sun was detected earlier this week. Such a storm could temporarily disrupt power and radio signals.

NOAA has notified operators of power plants and orbiting spacecraft to take precautions. It also alerted the Federal Emergency Management Agency about possible power disruptions, as the organization copes with the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Helene and gears up for Hurricane Milton barreling across the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida. . . .

Now you know. And, onward. . . go Buffs [also a home to NOAA and NCAR], let's beat those Cats, from K-State in two nights -- in Boulder!

Between now and then -- and always -- let's be excellent to one another -- even as Tangerine floods the tee-vee advertising spaces with odious lies about our fellow Americans, many of whom have lawfully now migrated here.

He's to be. . . summarily. . . ignored.

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[U] The Next Step, In Our Learnings -- About "Whacking" Asteroids Off-Course -- To Potentially Protect Earth... Is Now Under-Sail, From ESA and JAXA...

Due to other commitments, we are slightly delayed in getting this ESA good news out. We covered the DART mission closely, and now the European Space Agency has successfully launched a follow on analysis mission. Excellent! [Update: see the ESA video below the pull-quote for mission flight specs and timelines.]

The follow on Hera journey into deep space is being overseen from ESA's facilities in Darmstadt, Germany. "Hera is finally on its way to Didymos; today we are writing a new page of space history,” said Hera mission manager Ian Carnelli. “This deep space mission took shape from contract signing to launch in only four years, a testimony to the hard work and dedication of the Hera team across ESA, European industry, science, and the Japanese space agency JAXA”. Here's the full press packet, on it all:

. . .ESA’s first planetary defence spacecraft has departed planet Earth. The Hera mission is headed to a unique target among the more than 1.3 million known asteroids in our Solar System – the only body to have had its orbit shifted by human action – to solve lingering mysteries associated with its deflection.

By sharpening scientific understanding of the ‘kinetic impact’ technique of asteroid deflection, Hera aims to make Earth safer. The mission is part of a broader ambition to turn terrestrial asteroid impacts into a fully avoidable class of natural disaster.

Developed as part of ESA’s Space Safety programme and sharing technological heritage with the Agency’s Rosetta comet hunter, Hera lifted off on a SpaceX Falcon 9 from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida, USA, on 7 October at 10:52 local time (16:52 CEST, 14:52 UTC) with its solar arrays deploying about one hour later.

The automobile-sized Hera will carry out the first detailed survey of a ‘binary’ -- or double-body -- asteroid, 65803 Didymos, which is orbited by a smaller body, Dimorphos. Hera’s main focus will be on the smaller of the two, whose orbit around the larger asteroid was changed by NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, demonstrating asteroid deflection by kinetic impact, in 2022. . . .

This is truly an amazing time to be alive, and following all the life-sciences. And space-science.

That said, do keep Florida (post Hurricane Milton) in your morning meditations, and if you are in a position to donate to relief efforts there, the American Red Cross is a good vehicle for that.



Onward.

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