Brian Orelli thinks the Arbiter 6-HALTS early termination news is overblown:
. . . .I'm no fan of Merck (NYSE: MRK), but the sell-off of its shares yesterday seems a little overblown considering the lack of information. . . .
See anything in there that suggests that Niaspan prevailed over Zetia? Me neither, but, judging by Merck's share decrease, it looks like that's what investors and some analysts are worried about. . . .
Ahem:
I think what we see here is not so much that it might not be a "loss" for Zetia, as it is highly-unlikely to be a "clear win" for Zetia.
Given the above chart (click it to enlarge), Zetia, and its sister-drug, Vytorin, really needed some sort of a "home run" -- just to have any shot of "staunching the bleeding" in U.S. market share, and sales, in the coming quarters. I think Forbes' Matt Herper is right -- there is very little chance that Zetia posted a clear win, here. Thus, investors should be expecting more of the same (despite CEO Hassan's contrary assurances), from Merck and Schering-Plough on July 21, 2009. Did I mention that I'll live blog it? I will.
