Told Ya' So! -- Close -- But Not QUITE Enough. . . Re Pfizer's "US Tax Protest". . .

At 55 Pounds Sterling, the offer equates to about $118.7 billion USD.

HOWEVER, it now all turns on how big a bite this takes from Pfizer stock tomorrow on the NYSE, at open. It is my experience that this sort of a "paying up" move, will drop the per share NYSE quoted price of Pfizer, tomorrow. How much is the key question. I was suggesting above $120 billion, to account for that drop, on the NYSE. I could get surprised, and Pfizer could rise in the morning, to make the offer around $120 billion -- but I'd not bet on it. Note that each dollar of decrease in Pfizer's NYSE quoted price will drop the final offer price by 55 cents. It is just simple math now. Should be a crazy open, in Pfizer stock tomorrow. [Was this all an Ian C. Read ruse -- to force a public debate on corporate tax rates in the US? Perhaps, just as I have repeatedly guessed.]

From Reuters just now, then:

. . . .55 Pounds; 45 per cent in cash, 55 per cent in Pfizer stock. . . The U.S. group said its new offer was final and could not be increased. It said it would not make a hostile offer directly to AstraZeneca shareholders and would only proceed with an offer with the recommendation of the AstraZeneca board.

Pfizer also increased the cash element in its offer to 45 percent, with AstraZeneca shareholders set to receive 1.747 shares in the enlarged company for each of their AstraZeneca shares and 2,476 pence in cash. . . .

For its part -- just as I said -- Pfizer now admits it cannot go hostile. The deal cannot be done as a hostile. Q.E.D.

So this is Ian C. Read's "final" offer. It is my guess that the AZ board will consider it -- but without a majority of the consideration being flipped to cash, and/or without the price of Pfizer's stock rising say 5 to 10 per cent on the NYSE tomorrow (i.e., ain't gonna happen!). . . I'd bet the deal doesn't get done in 2014. Or at all. Bold guess -- but the AZ team will negotiate in good faith for a bit, seeking a fairer share in cash rather than stock, for the AZ shareholders -- then, when Ian C. Read won't oblige -- AZ will politely push away. As they ought to, as fiduciaries.

That's my gut. [And, oddly enough, this is my 3,000^th post. Hmmm. Hawks won Game One against the Kings, as well. Nice!]

WSJ Rumor: Sweetened AZ Offer From Pfizer, Tonight. I say: Gotta Be $120 Billion Or Better To Get It Done

I'll say it again -- this will not be a hostile deal -- as Mr. Read just can't get it done, in a fight. And to get a friendly deal, Pfizer needs to bump the offer up significantly -- to a mostly cash offer of $120 billion (or better than $120 billion; like $128 billion -- if it is priced as mostly in Pfizer stock) -- in my experienced opinion.

So -- again -- we wait for May 26 -- but Pfizer might well walk away on that day, now -- after draining about 14 per cent from its own stock price, in the process. Looks rather foolish to my eye. Pfizer would recover at least some of that, should it walk away -- but again, what on Earth was Mr. Read thinking? If Pfizer walks away, he all but confirms it was a demi-god's tax protest, here in the USA. So, here's the WSJ bit:

. . . .Pfizer Inc. was planning to make a sweetened takeover offer for AstraZeneca PLC on Sunday, according to people familiar with the matter, in what could be a last-ditch effort to bring the British drug giant to the negotiating table.

Pfizer, which has been rebuffed by AstraZeneca more than once, may walk away from its proposed deal if its latest advance is turned away, these people said. . . .

There is no guarantee Pfizer would walk away should that occur, however, and people close to the matter have said in the past that the pursuit could ultimately turn hostile, with the U.S. company making an offer directly to AstraZeneca's shareholders.

Details of a new offer and where any talks between the two companies currently stand couldn't be learned. . . .

So, not much in the rumor, at all. Have a good evening, one and all -- and "Go Blackhawks" -- now up 2 to 1, in Period Two, over the Kings!