I think the 100 day call option in favor of Sanofi-Aventis will expire mid-next week. One of my commenters thinks expiry day is Monday, February 8, 2010. I make it to be Wednesday, February 10, 2010.
Either way, with Sanofi's CEO previously saying it was "likely" to exercise the option, the perhaps $8.8 billion deal could come to pass (after it clears a veritable maze of intertwined antitrust authorities' desks, in Europe, the US, Canada and Australia, among others). If it goes forward, it will change the landscape of animal health delivery in many fundamental ways -- as it creates a truly global Goliath.
This is a deal in which the legacy Schering-Plough/Intervet animal health assets (say $4.2 billion, or so) would be contributed to a newly reformed joint venture 
between New Merck and Sanofi, and the New Merial animal health assets (presently solely owned by Sanofi -- call those about $4.5 billion), which include old legacy Merck's animal health assets -- all get rolled up into a ball, and a new global juggernaut would begin business, and (if untouched) possibly dominate, in many smaller European markets. Got all that? Good. But it all evaporates into a Brigadoon-like mist, if Sanofi decides not to exercise its call option by mid-next week (or so).
My bet is that the exercise notice will come on the last hour of the last day it is still permissable to deliver it, into Whitehouse Station. The call option specifies "prior to 5 pm New York time," on that day. We'll let you know, up or down.
Note however, that the FTC had some grave concerns about this possibility, back when it was reviewing the Merck bust-up of Schering-Plough:
. . . .At the time the parties entered into an agreement to divest Merck’s shares in Merial to Sanofi-Aventis, they also entered into a call option agreement (“Call Option”) granting Sanofi-Aventis the right to combine the animal health businesses of Merial and Schering-Plough after the Acquisition is consummated and to recreate the 50/50 joint venture between Merck and Sanofi-Aventis. The effect of the Call Option, if exercised, would be to reverse the animal health remedy required by the Order. Consistent with Commission policy, the Order contains a prior approval provision to address the credible risk (here, the high likelihood) that the combined Merck/Schering-Plough and Sanofi-Aventis would combine their animal health businesses after the divestiture. The call option was entered into with the expectation that it is likely to be exercised, and the firms have publicly identified the advantages of such a combination. As a result, Merck is prohibited from acquiring any of Merial’s animal health assets, or in any way combining the animal health businesses of Merck and Sanofi-Aventis without the prior approval of the Commission. . .
In any event, here's a slide on it all, from July 30, 2009:
That's slang for down-sizing the newly-combined employee population. Stay tuned.
