Suddenly, Merck's Animal Health Businesses May Be. . . UNDER-Sized (Too). . .

A quick follow-up, then -- to this. The Pfizer spinoff Zoetis is still clearly No. 1.

But if Lilly, Glaxo and Novartis can pull all this transactional conjuring off, Lilly holds the No. 2 spot in Animal Health. That puts Merck at No. 4 or worse (unless Whitehouse Station acts -- in turn). Of course, it will be mid-2015 before all of this is closed -- but Merck will, in all probability, do something dramatic between now and then.

I think that which was luminous, pre dawn -- just became clear(er) -- with the Novartis early morning announcements. Despite my running the graphic anew, at right -- I do not expect a revival of the 2009- to 2011 era Merial Sanofi JV discussions. But could Merck or Sanofi do something (collaboratively) to ensure robust competition persists -- in Animal Health, globally? I now think the EU Competition Commission might be more open to the idea, given how much more incrementally concentrated the Lilly-Novartis AH deal will make these markets. [US FTC/DoJ Hart Scott analysis -- in a separate post -- at day's end.]

Will Merck add to its Animal Health core, bulking up? Or will it effectively exit, via a spin-off or sale? We shall see. More later -- daylight duties are now calling yours truly. [It is absolutely true now that the GSK-Novartis JV will control the No. 2 spot in Consumer Health world-wide (behind only J&J) -- Merck's legacy Schering-Plough Consumer Health operations are waifish, and in need of some real help -- or an exit plan.]