Apparently, Michael Saylor is arguing that this 2025 Crash is “no big deal”, since it comes in at a little under a 40% down-bubble, at the moment, in about eight elapsed weeks.
I might respond that in the 2017 debacle it took until the latter parts of 2018 before the crash was over. That is, after hitting a high of $19,900, bitcoin spot prices rumbled around — up and down (but mostly down) — over for many months (not weeks) sometimes reaching close to $8,000 again, only to fall back to an ultimate bottom of around $3,900. Then it finally resumed a northward climb.
My point here is that these sorts of “black swan deaths” take quite a while to play out — and we may only be on the front end of what could be a 12 to 16 month winter.
. . .Saylor: we are a $500 million operating software company. . . .
Given the extreme uncertainty in the broader traditional finance markets, it would be foolish to assume that this is a vertical drop and then a vertical rise. But that is exactly what Michael Saylor is trying to sell, while sitting on what could turn out to be $50-$70 billion in (for the moment, unrealized) losses.
Saylor now argues he’s not a fund or trust, but a $500 million operating software company, that happens to have an (unfathomably) volatile leveraged balance sheet exposure.
The obvious rub is that his leveraged exposure to volatility is many multiples of any revenue his “software business” will now ever generate.
So his MSTR NASDAQ stock trades well below its NAV. Hilarious.
Umm. . . Good luck with all that, Michael.
Out.
नमस्ते
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