Friday, October 20, 2017

Even If It Is $275 Million... It Is Immaterial. Yawn.


There were some fairly breathless reports overnight -- mostly third party guesses, actually -- as to the potential size and scope of the mid 2017 cyber attack that struck Merck, among other multinationals. At the size reported, it would be. . . simply immaterial to Merck -- and Merck need not comment at all on the matter.

It should be noted that Kenilworth has definitively said that it is still unable to estimate a range of exposure for the attack, all in. Under applicable SEC rules, the company need only provide such a guestimate if it is (i) reasonably likely to be material (i.e., more than five percent of annual revenues -- or more than about $2.4 billion), and then (ii) reasonably capable of any confident estimation.

So -- for my part, while I expect that the vaccine interruption may ultimately total a little more than these breathless guesses, the range would have to grow about ten-times larger, to be "material" under current SEC guidance.

And I think that possibility is vanishingly remote. Which is likely why the company's stock rose on the NYSE yesterday, and will likely trade about even with the overall large cap pharma market today. Earlier this week, J&J reported a solid quarter (Q2 2017); I expect Merck to do much the same, in fairly short order. Its earnings call is one week away.

Now you know -- as we offer a "this day in history" moment on the masthead -- just. . . for fun. Perhaps of more current relevance (but since I didn't want to take the darker historical moment, and fashion any visual allegories), it was exactly 70 years ago this morning (October 20, 1947) that the US House Un-American Activities Committee began issuing subpoenas to people in Hollywood, essentially accusing them of communism -- as a way to enforce conformity.

As I say, I didn't want to wallow in negative karma, but the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania seems to now daily tweet decidedly pungent bits -- aimed both at the NFL owners, and players -- trying to enforce his own brand of conformity, upon NFL players -- union members, all. As I've written before, not only is that antithetical to a free and just labor market -- and our society of ordered liberty, it is an arguable violation of federal law. So -- instead -- as dawn arrives here, luminous and clear -- let us contemplate the Louisiana Purchase! Smile. . . . onward, as I say. [I think Trump is simply trying to use his seat to get even with (settle scores) related to the three decades ago failure of his USFL NJ Generals. . . he has always blamed the NFL for that.]



नमस्ते

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