Tuesday, June 20, 2017

We May Now Probably Call The 2017 Congolese Ebola Outbreak... Over.

The latest WHO Situation Report contains exceedingly good news. We -- the collective "we" -- may breathe a sigh of relief, now.

Here late on Tuesday evening, I will go out on a limb and say that -- with a 97 per cent confidence/probability factor -- from these WHO statistical regression models, there will be no new cases in the Congo, in the next 30 days. That, in turn, would mean the current Ebola outbreak has been. . . arrested. From that June 20 WHO report, then:

. . . .Cumulatively, since the start of the outbreak, there have been five confirmed and three probable cases.

Additionally there have been 99 suspected cases reported that following laboratory analysis tested negative for EVD and therefore were deemed not to be cases. The last confirmed case was isolated on 17 May 2017 and tested negative for EVD by PCR for the second time on 21 May 2017. Of the confirmed and probable cases, four survived and four died, resulting in a case fatality rate of 50%. The confirmed and probable cases were reported from Nambwa (four confirmed and two probable), Ngayi (one probable) and Mabongo (one confirmed).

Data modelling suggests that the risk of further cases is currently low but not negligible, and decreases with each day without new confirmed/probable cases. As of the reporting date, 97% of simulated scenarios predict no further cases in the next 30 days. . . .

Excellent. Now, I will be on trial (pro bono), essentially all day tomorrow -- so, phone off. . . in federal court. If 45 does something stupendously inane -- it will have to wait, until evening. Be good to one another.


No comments: