Wednesday, May 3, 2017

Even IF There IS A US House AHCA Vote Tomorrow...

As I write this, it looks like Speaker Ryan may yet try to schedule a vote tomorrow, on the last day of the current House session.

Let us be clear, though -- even if that vote occurs, and even if the House is able to pass it -- the Senate remains a very daunting obstacle, to Mr. Trump's ill-starred measure. That is, 45 is significantly shorter, on the sorely-needed votes, in the (generally) more moderate Senate -- than he is (proportionately), in the generally more conservative US House.

In fact, Nate Silver's 538 calls this latest round of kabuki theatre simply a slightly "better way to fail" -- when these House folk go back home, to face their constituents -- on the impending recess. That is grin-worthy, indeed.

More seriously, in a few weeks, when the non-partisan budget analysis of the bill's impact on both the deficit, and the poor (assuming enough votes materialize in the House to pass it) -- and the pre-existing conditions provision, in particular -- becomes available during the recess, Condor predicts we will see fewer and fewer Senators willing to back it.

So -- net/net -- I am sticking with my prediction that no repeal or replace bill will become law before the 2018 mid-terms.

And likely not then, either. Onward -- sub-silencio.


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