Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Is 45 To Be Believed? If So, Good For Pharma -- Or... (Maybe) Not So?

Even if we are to believe 45 -- about his desire for health insurance "for everyone" (and high-quality, but magically rainbow like "cheap" health care delivery, as well!), it is quite unclear that Congress (Speaker Ryan in particular) will ever send him a bill that achieves all (or even most) of that.

If Congress does, and 45 signs it, then he will have essentially taken the HRC 1994 model, and implemented it. And that will be very good for pharma and bio-science companies, here in the US. However, ALSO if he is to be believed, he wants to force pharma to negotiate on price with the US governmental payers. Again, that is something Congress may not allow him (as the Congress is still beholden to PhRMA lobby money). But if 45 achieves that, again, he will have implemented an old 1994 HRC plan -- and that will be decidedly bad news for pharma, and life science companies in the US.

So -- we return to the opening question: what to believe? Should anything Mr. Trump says about health care payment and policy, here in the early days -- be taken seriously? I suspect not. But I also suspect the Congress will be politically unable to repeal -- without a "replace" -- for the 20 million only recently newly-insured people in the US. Here's a bit -- do go read it all at PennLive:

. . . .In an interview over the weekend, Trump appeared to promise something similar to Obamacare, or even more expansive, regarding how many people will be fully covered. . . .

"We're going to have insurance for everybody," Trump told the Post in a telephone interview late Saturday. "There was a philosophy in some circles that if you can't pay for it, you don't get it. That's not going to happen with us." People covered under the law "can expect to have great health care. It will be in a much simplified form. Much less expensive and much better.". . .

Will HRC see her ideas -- from 23 years ago -- essentially enacted? We shall see. I for one am unlikely to take anyone's word alone very seriously, throughout 2017. Except possibly Speaker Ryan. It seems to me that he will ultimately be the gate-keeper on the oddly misshapen Zoo that is the Trump Administration. Onward. I'll be on the West Coast (with clients) -- after tomorrow night, so the blogging forecast calls for. . . light coverage. Smile. . . .


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