Saturday, October 29, 2016

Part III -- Cliff Notes Version: € 1 Billion Merck Notes Offering

Here -- for your reading enjoyment(!) -- is the definitive 424(b)(5) prospectus for the above issuance. Just to keep a complete record on the €1 billion, but it does confirm all my analysis in the prior Part I and Part II.

Entirely separately, Merck's common stock declined on the NYSE on moderately strong volume, by over four per cent in yesterday's session.

Some pointed to the fact that insulin sales came in light at Novo -- and might portend the same for Kenilworth. I don't think that is a particularly probable explanation. A bit of it may have been an overall decline, occasioned by the jolt the (in all likelihood irrelevant, to the Presidency) Weiner emails and texts brought to the final week or two of the race. I think it will turn out to be nothing, related to HRC -- but a Trump win would be far worse (ACA repeal; a return to bad old days) for all of pharma than an HRC administration -- with HRC likely to win some form of a public option -- which means more reimbursement/pay options for life sciences companies. So I think yesterday's trading was a bit of an early (irrational) panic -- on Wall Street. I expect it will self-correct on Monday, or shortly after. Look for Merck to rise next week.

It is a seven game series. And now, it may well go all seven. Onward, you young Cubbies! It's going to be marked down, in history, as a series for the ages, indeed. . . . With a confident, expectant smile. . .


No comments: