Monday, July 18, 2016

BMO Capital Feels Merck Is "Fairly Fully Valued" At This $58 Level

Over the past nearly seven years, we have watched -- and noted -- the ups and downs, from the old Bank of Montreal analyst operations.

Last August 15, BMO had increased its target on Merck to $70, from $64 (which was its old target, as of September 2014). It last had a "market perform" rating on Kenilworth in May of 2014. Since Septmeber of 2014, BMO had Merck as an "Out-perform".

This morning, BMO returned Merck to September 2014 rating. What this means it that -- in the near term -- BMO thinks $58 to $60 is a reasonably fair price for Merck, and it will rise or fall pretty much in step with the DJIA. Here's a bit -- but do go read it all:

. . . .MRK shares are up about 13 percent year-to-date with a total return of about 15 percent including the dividend, outperforming the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 Pharmaceuticals index. The analyst sees the risk/reward as more balanced.

"While we remain bullish on Keytruda (forecast $9 billion by 2026 in multiple tumors), and expect a strong launch in first line (1L) NSCLC, we've lowered our expectations in 2L+ as Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.'s Opdivo should continue to dominate in this setting," [BMO analyst] Arfaei highlighted. . . .

So now you know. Keep a good thought, for racial harmony, this week -- as we head into what may well be a very divisive Republican convention, on that score. Our hearts are with the slain police officers' families, and those still recovering, in Baton Rouge, since just yesterday. Awful.

Even so, being pro-BLM is not being anti-police -- the two are not mutually-exclusive. Only small minds are comforted by -- and/or require -- such literally black and white thinking. But the GOP is about to say they are, in Cleveland, this weeek. Me? I'll meditate on peace this week. I will hold to a more nuanced, and yes, even occasionally uncomfortable view of the world, as we know it, now.

So, peace it is. The peace that comes from justice. For what we need, is more justice. Less colored -- more equitable -- justice, for all. Mr. Obama is, and has been, spot on, throughout here (despite what the hard right might tell you). Namaste, to all of good will.

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