Sunday, November 22, 2015

"Pfilergan" 2016: I'll Go Out On A Limb, And Bet That The Inversion Aspect Of This Deal Will Be Scuttled


With unnamed sources reporting tonight that Brent Saunders will secure an integration-related role, and perhaps be in line to take Mr. Read's seat, one day. . . I imagine the respective boards are in fact meeting tonight.

If that turns out to be true, I'd look for a doozy of an early 2016 tax policy fight here, in the US. No one currently running for President will be happy with Mr. Read's move. Of course, we may safely except the current shareholders of Pfizer -- from those who will howl -- but not many more. And, as I will make plain in some later post, when I have more time, Mr. Read grossly overstates his US tax burden, largely for the purpose of forcing the inversion discussion. [UPDATED: I've just made my whimsical suggestion, at left, for the combined entity's logo.]
But as I say, more on that, some other day -- if and when a deal is announced formally. Here is the New York Times, on the latest rumors:

. . . .The boards of Pfizer and Allergan are set to approve a merger of the two companies worth more than $150 billion, people briefed on the matter said on Sunday.

A merger would create a huge new pharmaceutical giant and could potentially help Pfizer lower its American tax rate.

Directors of both companies were expected to vote on the transaction Sunday, with an announcement expected as soon as Monday, the people said, noting that final details were still being settled and the timing could change.

Under terms of the proposed deal, Pfizer is expected to pay 11.3 of its shares for each share of Allergan, the maker of Botox, which has its headquarters in Dublin. The transaction would also involve a relatively small cash component.. . .


Wondering if there will be some official word -- smoke signals, or other -- tomorrow. . .on this? Smiling, just the same. . . sleep soundly, like little round river rocks, one and all!

3 comments:

Ano said...

Should the Pfizer / Allergan deal go through, the question is who will Merck join up with. All the big pharma companies will have to consider mergers or them self be potential takeover targets...

Condor said...

I agree Anon., there will be some pressure for all the remaining top ten pharmacos to look seriously at "scaling opportunities"...

But the deal pace has been robust in this space since late 2013, at least -- so it is really just an acceleration of the pre-existing trend...

Great observations -- and do stop back in!

Namaste

Condor said...

Now the open question is: can they get the deal closed, without losing large chunks of value -- to antitrust divestiture orders, and/or inversion benefits retractions.

We shall see... But it is likely that whatever they do, the following step will be a separation of Pfizer's businesses -- a pre-baked breakup.

Namaste!