Saturday, August 30, 2014

Tiny Matters: Most MSM Outlets Misunderstand the UK Takeover Regs Timelines

I'll not expend an undue flow of electrons on it here, but in my estimation, there is almost no chance of a September renewal of the foundered Pfizer hostile deal, for AstraZeneca. In short, AZ has no reason to invite Ian back. And that's what the UK Takeover Code would require (at this moment, anyway). [Two of many backgrounders, here, and here.]

Here is one of the more confused reports -- it has the three- and six- month re-engage dates exactly backwards. AZ must have voluntarily invited Pfizer back to the table -- if talks are to resume this coming Tuesday. And there is not a snowball's chance in August -- in Dallas, Texas, of that (in my not so humble opinion). And so now, I've reordered and edited the above Bidnezz(!) story, to make it passingly accurate, as to UK law. November 26 Pfizer may ask AZ to re-engage. And AZ may (and likely will) decline.

. . . .The [UK Takeover Code] regulations allow would-be acquirers to make a one-time offer [if] the target [has] invite[d] [the acquirer] back to the table, [at three months]. In most cases, UK takeover regulations allow companies to re-engage with one another once a mandatory six-month cooling off period expires. . . .

AstraZeneca also has the option to reengage in talks with Pfizer with a proposed sale offer [by inviting Pfizer back as of August 26 -- which I say is unlikely]. The companies will not have any regulations applicable on them from November 26 onward, when the six-month cool off period ends. . . .

Um. . . pronouns matter.

AZ's checkpoint inhibitor (oncology) program posted spectacular data, at ASCO in June 2014. A strong business case may now be made that Pfizer needs AZ far more than the other way around. And that will put the board of AZ in a very sound position to talk politely for a bit to Ian, then just say. . . no. That checkpoint inhibitor candidate -- much like the BMS and Merck similar PD-1 receptor candidates -- has the real potential to reshape the treatment of cancer, globally. And AZ could garner perhaps $10 billion a year in peak oncology sales from it. No need to share that with wee ole' man Ian. Q.E.D.

1 comment:

Condor said...

CONFIRMED -- No talks:

". . .Exclusive: 'Back to normal' for AstraZeneca CEO, despite Pfizer rumors

Though speculation is rife of a new Pfizer bid, AstraZeneca's chief executive is not holed up with advisers in London or New York. Instead, he has spent the last three days immersed in heart science in Barcelona. "The only thing I can tell you is I am here - and imagine where I would be if something was happening!" Pascal Soriot told Reuters on the sidelines of the European Society of Cardiology congress, the world's largest heart meeting
. . . ."