Of course, J&J's operations do not map directly onto Merck's -- especially in the snese that J&J has a proportionately very-large diagnostics/medical equipment portfolio of businesses, compared to Whitehouse Station. Even so, J&J does operate at the same scale -- and in most of the same geographies -- as Merck, so as to its financial metrics, it is a relatively reliable "canary in the coal mine".
I would argue that J&J's experience -- on foreign currencies translation -- is particularly analogous to Merck's. [That is, both hedge pretty prudently, where it is not wildly-expensive to do so.] And so, J&J just reported a nearly 3 per cent erosion in international sales revenue growth rates, due solely to the effect of the strong US dollar. See this non-GAAP to GAAP reconcilation table (a PDF file).
Don't misunderstand -- J&J just posted largely terrific Q2 results, given the still recovering world markets, and the uncertainty around Obamacare implementation here in the US. So, I expect a strong quarter from Whitehouse Station, as well.
I do think currencies will be a drag on reported revenue -- even with significant hedging activity underway. Remember, you heard it here first. [I would sure love to know how Invokana® uptake is progressing, but it is not yet material to overall J&J -- having just been approved by FDA in March. That franchise, as I've repeatedly said, will likely materially-eat into Januvia® US sales growth, over time -- and significantly more than Wall Street consensus currently foecasts.]
Now we wait for Pfizer -- then Merck, at month's end.
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