Friday, November 11, 2011

Citi Lowering Merck 2014 to 2020 EPS Estimates, After "R and D Day" 2011


We will see whether the dividend hike, and sthe repeated presentation, at the Credit Suisse Investors' Healthcare Conference today, will be enough to stave off a lower NUSE opening this morning, due to the Citi analyst note -- detailed here (do go read it all, but this is a bit of it):

. . . .The drugmaker Merck & Co.'s long-term sales and earnings growth is unsustainable without more business development to supplement its pipeline, according to a Citi analyst. . . .

Analyst John T. Boris said in a research note that the briefing at Merck's Whitehouse Station, N.J., headquarters "served to heighten our concerns over its next wave of innovation."

He said the company's development pipeline is lagging behind its peers, and Merck BioVentures, which focuses on biologic drugs, will not meet a development target by next year. The analyst expects lower sales from it. . . .

I must admit that if Bridion® (sugammadex. a long delayed legacy Schering-Plough candidate) is listed as the top of the Merck depth-chart, for an FDA filing next year, that doesn't exactly scream innovation, and breakout earnings potential. Bridion was last rejected -- declared "non-approvable, without more data" -- by FDA in August 2008. It is approved in the EU, and Japan, though -- to be fair.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

what is frasier doing getting involved in that penn state stuff now? haven't seen you catch on to that yet.

Condor said...

Actually, I think CEO Frazier will do a superb job -- and the Penn State board needed someone with gravitas to step up and lead the investigation.

He's a fine person for the job, in my opinion.

Namaste -- do stop back.

Condor said...

To be clear, this will be about civil liability. The prosecutors are already handling the criminal matters. And it seems clear that Joe Pa isn't a target, but a material witness. And he says he's cooperating, fully.

However, if it is accurate that there are as many as 41 victims (according to some published reports), and the Penn State endowment is "only" $1.2 billion, the 41 civil cases could eventually bankrupt the University (in defense fees and payouts).

Mr. Frazier will (hopefully) strike a balance between compensating the victims fairly, and trying to keep the University from going under, en todo.

The central question, for civil liability, will be "who knew what, when -- and whether a reasonable person, standing in the shoes of the board and chancellor -- could/should have asked and insisted on more, after the 2004 refusal of Paterno to retire quietly (assuming, arguendo, that the 2004 discussions were in some way related to Sandusky's then-ongoing rape crimes -- cleaning house, back then).

We shall see. Ed, over at Pharmalot, has a good long piece on it.

Namaste

Anonymous said...

29-Nov-2011 Settlement Approved Merck Vioxx and ERISA 401K Class Settlement for 49.5 MM see www.merckERISAsettlement.com for details.