Monday, October 18, 2010

Analysis At SeekingAlpha Confirms My View: $37 On The NYSE Has Merck Fully-Valued

Although Merck is scheduled to report Q2 2010 results in about 11 days now -- and thus offer some new insights (primarily refining the probable outcomes of the J&J arbitration -- the biggest potential downside catalyst on Merck's horizon), based on all that is known today, Merck is fully valued at $37, and undervalued at $32. That has been one of my themes -- since at least early March 2010. Cool [More detail, on my earlier analysis, vis-a-vis Pfizer (the No.1 pharma, to Merck's No.2 position), by clicking the barrel chart, at right; as well as some more, here].

Against that backdrop, just this morning, Nadeem Moulvi (do go read all of his, for tips on trading other pharma major players), for SeekingAlpha, offered this fundamental relative-value analysis, detailing at least some of the granularity that got me to my conclusion last winter (and I do concur with the author that these are not the only matters. . . that matter):

. . . .Based on the performed analysis, Abbott Laboratories [at $53.17], Bristol Myers Squibb[at $27.20], and Eli Lilly [at $37.76] appear to be undervalued. Merck [at $36.95] and Novartis [at $59.02] are fairly valued, while GlaxoSmithKline [at $41.53] is currently overvalued. . . .

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