Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Was SeekingAlpha Misled -- On the Law -- Of "Materiality"?

SeekingAlpha has a piece up this morning, purporting to quote senior executives at Merck to the effect that the Remicade®/Simponi® arbitration will be "immaterial" to New Merck. That would simply be. . . a false statement. Why? Merck has effectively sworn the opposite, in its SEC filings.

Here's the SeekingAlpha analysis:

. . . .[B]osses at Merck & Co. willing to discuss the issue right now are very much downplaying imminent arbitration. . . .

According to EvaluatePharma’s NPV Analyzer, Remicade and Simponi hold a net present value of 5% and 1%, respectively, of Merck’s share price. These figures are in line with Bernstein analysts’ prediction that Merck’s share price would decline in value by 5% or more if the final decision went against the company. . . .

Just like Merck's SEC filings, SeekingAlpha is right -- not the purportedly "unnamed" Merck executives. This outcome will be material to New Merck -- up or down.

No comments: