Thursday, July 29, 2010

Merck's Q2 2010 Conference Call -- Live Blogged

The call/webcast will run live, from this link, tomorrow.

We'll probably get underway around 7:55 am EDT tomorrow, here.

▲ Seamus Fernadez of Leerink, Swann now says that Merck has reported in-line (no $0.03 EPS "beat") Q2 results this morning -- when the company's lower than expected tax rate is excluded -- he's clearly disappointed. He had been particularly bullish before this morning.

Merck's Q2 2010 earnings are out -- and Whitehouse Station has tightened its 2010 guidance range for EPS, raising the bottom by two cents, and lowering the top by two cents, on a non-GAAP basis.

The real story though, is that it has slashed the GAAP EPS range -- now $0.82 to $1.16 for the full year. As recently as June 2, 2010 (a PDF file), this was Merck's 2010 guidance -- so the lowering reflects additional GAAP down-bubbles since June 2:
. . . .As of June 2, 2010, the company reconfirms its full year 2010 guidance non-GAAP EPS range of $3.27 to $3.41, excluding certain items and 2010 GAAP EPS range of $1.15 to $1.50. The company also reconfirms its long-term target high single digit non-GAAP EPS compound annual growth rate from 2009 to 2013. . . .

Wild. Literally. The BOTTOM, on a GAAP basis, as of June 2, 2010 is now the top.

▲ We'll watch for consensus expected earnings per share of 83 cents, excluding one-time items, on expected revenue of $11.47 billion for the quarter. . . .

▲ However, while many analysts expect "in-line" results, several are predicting softer than projected sales, globally -- on foreign currency exchange rates, and European weakness. . . . we'll see, in the morning.

▲ "It's a tug-of-war between the stronger earnings and the signs that the economy is not recovering as rapidly as it has after other recessions," said Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at National Securities. . . .


Anonymous said...

Were there any updates on Remicade?

Condor said...

The real answer is "no".

Peter Kellog danced around a question put by Jami Rubin from Goldman, Sachs &Co., on it, quite a bit, but said only that they were "looking into" making a statement prior to the September arbitration -- about Merck's expectations for the outcome, and the process.

But, no -- no real update.


Condor said...

Oops -- sorry -- it was Tim Anderson at Sanford Bernstein who asked the question, and GC Bruce Kuhlik who offered this answer:

". . . .At this point, we provided the information about when we expect the arbitration hearing to begin and the selection of the panel. We're looking at whether we can provide some additional information with respect to the process, and I hope to do that in a relatively near future. We continue to believe very strongly that we've structured this transaction in a way that's appropriate for the REMICADE distribution agreement. And I'll turn it over with respect to the financial targets. . . ."

I'll make this a new post.