By 8:25 am, EST on January 26, 2010 -- this live-blogging will go. . . um, live -- until then, here's what analysts expect (per tonight's DailyFinance):
▲ Jami Rubin, Goldman, Sachs & Co.: "Was Simponi's launch a disappointment -- in terms of projections?" Answer: Dominic Caruso, CFO -- No, Simponi is growing quite well -- inline with our expectations, we are through the headwinds, and not inhibited by third party payer restrictions (from any generic competition). We feel very good about the uptake of Simponi (here in the US).
▲ Rick Weiss, at Leerink Swann, in Q&A -- Weldon answers that currencies will still be an issue in 2010. That has direct implications for New Merck, given that with Schering-Plough's higher proportion of non-US sales, New Merck will be increasingly impacted by foreign currency exchange rates.
▲ Growth in the non-US sales of Remicade and Simponi was 11 percent in Q4 2009, when adjusted for inventory stocking initiatives -- this is important, as it should be essentially identical to the growth New Merck reports, on these two products.
▲ Looking at the numbers, analysts call for earnings of 97 cents per share on revenues of $15.72 billion, a slight improvement over last year's fourth quarter results of earnings of 94 cents per share, excluding special items, on revenues of $15.18 billion. The company has recently reaffirmed its fiscal 2009 earnings guidance of $4.54 - $4.59 per share, excluding items. Analysts are projecting $4.55 per share. . . .
▲ New Merck had published this, on January 10, 2010: "With respect to the arbitration with Centocor, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson, the arbitration panel has recently been selected. Since the selection, the parties have met with the panel and the hearing in this matter has been scheduled for late September 2010. . . ."
See ya' mañana.
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