Monday, July 6, 2009

WSJ Gets It Right -- About Merck's Q2 2009 Prospects

Here it is -- from just an hour ago, per The Wall Street Journal's reporting:

. . . .Merck & Co. (MRK) - reports July 21

Wall Street Expectations: Analysts see the company reporting earnings, excluding items, of 77 cents a share on revenue of $5.84 billion. Prior-year earnings, including restructuring charges, came to 82 cents a share on revenue of $6.05 billion.

Key Issues: Merck's $45.3 billion cash-and-stock deal to acquire Schering-Plough Corp. (SGP) remains on track for a fourth-quarter close, according to the companies, despite a federal request for more information related mainly to the drug makers' potentially overlapping animal-health businesses, which Merck has begun shopping. Merck and Schering have a cholesterol-drug venture which has been under pressure because of questions about the safety and effectiveness of the drugs Vytorin and Zetia. . . .

Schering-Plough will report the same morning. Will the Cholesterol Franchise Joint Venture show less than $400 million in sales to Schering, in Q2? If so, CEO Hassan mis-spoke (and, perhaps, misled) analysts and investors, last quarter (look for currencies to have worked against Schering and Merck in Q2 2009, as well).

In any event, I'll live-blog it all:





COme back on July 21, 2009. . . .

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Whats yoru analysis on getting to $400M?

Condor said...

I don't see how Schering-Plough can. It generally collects less in the later quarters of each year, because Merck must pay the first $120 million or so of revenue to Schering-Plough -- then it is 50-50 thereafter. So Q2 could be smaller, to Schering-Plough, for that reason alone.

Additionally, I simply think the swoon in the US continued in the most recent quarter -- and it may be accelerating, as formularies stock-out, but do not reorder -- due to Vytorin's high price, and non-superior efficacy. These are clearly cost-constrained markets -- more and more.

We shall see.

Namaste -- do stop back.