. . . .An FDA memo released in advance of the meeting said the data in support of Saphris' short-term efficacy, or effectiveness, in treating schizophrenia "are not overwhelming for this drug. . . ."
[And earlier, she wrote:]
If approved, Saphris would compete with other top-selling antipsychotic drugs like AstraZeneca's Seroquel . . . and Eli Lilly's top-selling drug Zyprexa. . . .
If nothing else, one would get the sense from The Wall Street Journal article that this is a market already crowded with best-selling, entrenched franchise names. And that -- coupled with the lukewarm-at-best official PDAC remarks -- may explain why Schering-Plough's stock actually fell into negative territory (even though it had gapped higher, at the NYSE open), after the PDAC vote news was released. For the last three NYSE Schering-Plough trading sessions, more than double the usual daily volume has crossed the tape. The smart money may be moving -- and moving, away (SGP topped the WSJ's "selling on strength" list, yesterday). We shall see. Overnight, Reuters quoted a BMO Capital analyst, thus:
. . . .BMO Capital Markets analyst Robert Hazlett boosted his sales estimates for the drug following the panel's positive vote, saying he expects Saphris to earn $25 million in 2009, $125 million in 2010 and $200 million in 2011. . . .
Only $200 million by the end of 2011. That would confirm my "already-crowded space" theory, on the drug.
Now, I guess, it is in the hands of the full Commission.