So -- Which Product-Lines Could Be "Busted-Out" of Schering?

Let's get specific, shall we?

Here are some guesses as to the future revenue lines (derived from published sources, and SEC filings) -- [along with some editorial comment, from yours truly, in brackets!]:

Schering's Likely Revenue-Streams
From Non-Cholesterol Franchise
Drugs: 2008 -- 2010 ($US Millions)

Puregon/Follistim 2008: $600 2009: $610 2010: $605 [This is stable only until Vertex's Teleprevir launches.] Claritin/Clarinex Products 2008: $425/$790 2009: $436/$580 2010: $420/$555 [Will there be an Orchid (or other) "at risk" generic launch? If so, these will drop- off, even more dramatically.] Nasonex 2008: $1,150 2009: $1,160 [This could easily be peeled off.] 2010: $1,175 NuvaRing 2008: $455 2009: $542 2010: $597 [Rising nicely; but lawsuit-trend-line rising, in time. . . .] Bayer Relationship (All-In) 2008: $461 2009: $432 [Alliance in litigation] 2010: $406

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Remeron 2008: $255 2009: $218 2010: $184 [Sharp drop here.] Zemuron 2008: $236 2009: $125 [Huge drop-offs!] 2010: $95 Cerazette 2008: $190 2009: $195 [Flat.] 2010: $190 Marvelon 2008: $156 2009: $170 [Soft rise.] 2010: $175 Mercilon 2008: $175 2009: $182 [Another soft rise.] 2010: $188 Livial 2008: $200 2009: $180 [Some declines.] 2010: $164 Implanon 2008: $150 2009: $140 2010: $108 [Clank.]

This is by no means exhaustive, as the "All Other" Organon line is about a billion per year, but many of these lines could be sold to pay-down debt.


Another interesting alternative might be to exit the Hep C franchise, en todo. Schering ought to concede that Teleprevir will win the day -- and sell-out now, for a better price, than be bled to death, little by little, by lost-share (all the while, having to spend on Boceprivir, clearly a "me-too" second-line candidate). So, if Schering could avoid the expense of development on Boceprivir, and get cash for the overall current-strength of the Hep C state of play, now -- why wouldn't it?

Here are the 2008 to 2010 guess-timated sales of its current Hep C franchise products, all in:
2008: $1,420
2009: $1,355 [Flat for so long as Vertex doesn't reach the US market.]
2010: $1,330

Again, this could throw off some cash to pay down debt, and then, perhaps, buy-back some common stock, near term, at lower prices -- given that come August 2010, Schering will be forced to issue highly-dilutive common stock, to "settle out" on those Organon-related 6% Mandatory Converts, if the common-share price isn't then well above $27.50 (and that is not very-likely).

I'll have more, soon.